Friday, March 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stocks markets were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. There have been no major developments on the Russia-Ukraine war front, from a markets perspective. That has somewhat lessened trader and investor risk aversion, but by no means can risk appetite in the marketplace be termed robust at present. There may be some keener risk aversion creep into markets on Friday, heading into the weekend.
Reports say President Biden and the European Commission president will announce a pact to boost Europe’s supply of liquefied natural gas by the end of the year as the EU tries to curb its reliance on Russian energy. The agreement follows Biden’s meetings with NATO, the Group of Seven and EU leaders to ramp up pressure on Putin. Biden Thursday called for Russia’s removal from the G-20 group of major economies.
Many market watchers are wondering what Russian President Putin will do next. His blunders, including the failed attempt at a swift victory in Ukraine and his vulnerable military that appears to be aging and under-funded, are front and center on the world stage. So is the slaughter of innocent Ukrainian citizens, young and old. Most believe a humiliated Putin is now more dangerous than ever. Indeed, this crisis is far from its end and may get worse before it gets better. However, the price spikes seen in gold and crude oil a few weeks ago that have not been retested do suggest that from a markets perspective, trader and investor anxiety a few weeks ago hit a peak as worst-case scenarios were quickly factored into markets. That’s an important assumption for traders and investors to digest.
The key outside markets see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $111.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker early today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.37%.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes pending home sales and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,550.00 and then at the February high of 4,578.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,415.00 and then at 4,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly firmer and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,000.00 and then at the February high of 15,261.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,500.00 and then at this week’s low of 14,183.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 150 even and then at 151 even. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 147 21/32 and then at 147 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 123.12.0 and then at 123.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 122.12.0 and then at 122.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1104 and then at last week’s high of 1.1172. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0994 and then at last week’s low of 1.0936. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $112.79 and then at $115.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $109.14 and then at $107.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures prices were lower again in early U.S. pre-market trading. Trading remains choppy and sideways. Corn and soybean market bulls are in firm overall technical control at elevated prices, while wheat futures are neutral. The all-important USDA planting intentions report on March 31 is coming into view for grain traders.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff