Wednesday, March 21–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed to mostly lower in quieter trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.
The major economic data point of the week will be this afternoon’s statement at the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC) that began Tuesday morning. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will also hold his first press conference this afternoon. Most expect the Fed to slightly raise U.S. interest rates today.
The Bank of England holds its monetary policy meeting on Thursday.
A major snowstorm on the East Coast of the U.S. has closed the federal government offices in Washington, D.C. However, economic data will be released via the government agency websites.
The key “outside markets” on Wednesday morning see the U.S. dollar index lower. Trading in the USDX remains choppy and sideways. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are also higher and hit a four-week high overnight. Oil prices are in a near-term uptrend on the daily chart.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the international transactions and current account report, existing home sales, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,740.00 and then at this week’s high of 2,756.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at this week’s low of 2,697.25 and then at 2,675.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
June Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 6,927.75 and then at 6,950.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 6,863.00 and then at this week’s low of 6,821.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 143 25/32 and then at 144 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 143 13/32 and then at 143 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.02.5 and then at Tuesday’s high of 120.11.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 119.28.0 and then at 119.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading today. Trading remains choppy and sideways. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 90.025 and then at 90.250. Shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 89.410 and then at this week’s low of 89.320. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a four-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have upside momentum this week. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $65.00 and then at the January high of $66.02. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $63.58 and then at $63.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures were mixed overnight. Grain market bulls have faded badly recently to suggest market tops are in place. Now, look for sideways at best price action for the next several weeks, until spring U.S. planting gets underway.