Friday, May 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed in quieter trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.
Today is the release of the April U.S. employment report from the Labor Department—arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to come in at up 195,000. Look for the potential for higher volatility in many markets, in the immediate aftermath of the report—especially if the forecast number is a big miss.
A U.S. high-level trade delegation sent to China for trade meetings this week has the talks end. A statement from China said some agreements were made, but there remain “significant disagreements over certain issues.” The two sides agreed to continue to negotiate. The U.S. has not yet released a statement following the meetings, which were held to try to avert a trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
The outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer and near this week’s 4.5-month high. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $68.50 a barrel.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the global services purchasing managers’ index (PMI).
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of 2,658.50 and then at this week’s high of 2,682.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at this week’s low of 2,591.25 and then at 2,575.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
June Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 6,700.00 and then at this week’s high of 6,740.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 6,600.00 and then at this week’s low of 6,538.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 143 30/32 and then at 144 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 143 14/32 and then at 143 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 119.26.5 and then at 120.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119.20.5 and then at Thursday’s low of 119.14.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S. trading today and near this week’s four-month high. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 92.665 and then at 93.000. Shorter-term support is seen at 92.000 and then at 91.595. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls are still in firm near-term technical control. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $69.34 and then at the April high of $69.55. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $68.00 and then at $67.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures were lower overnight, on profit taking from recent gains. Grain market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.