Tuesday, September 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Stock market bulls point out that we are now more than half way through what can be the historically turbulent month of September with no significant speed bumps yet encountered.
The marketplace is not showing a major reaction to the news Monday afternoon that President Trump will slap another $200 billion in tariffs against China, to which China vowed to retaliate, and to which Trump said he would retaliate to the retaliation. Reports said the world’s two largest economies still plan to hold trade talks later this month.
The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index slightly firmer and Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading just below $70.00 a barrel. Stiff chart resistance above the market has capped gains, and will likely continue to do so.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the NAHB housing market index, and Treasury international capital data.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid an uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 2,921.75 and then at 2,935.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,883.50 and then at 2,869.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded a bit recently. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 7,500.00 and then at 7,550.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the September low of 7,420.50 and then at 7,400.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as a downtrend is in place on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 141 31/32 and then at 142 9/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 141 7/32 and then at the August low of 141 4/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119.10.5 and then 119.13.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119.02.5 and then at this week’s low of 118.31.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is slightly up in early U.S. trading. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 94.565 and then at 94.870. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 93.920 and then at 93.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, very stiff technical resistance still lies just above the market. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $70.00 and then at $70.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $69.00 and then at the overnight low of $68.53. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Grain market bears remain in near-term technical control. U.S. corn and soybean harvest pressure is going full speed this week, so look for sideways-at-best trading in the grains in the coming weeks, but more likely sideways-to-lower.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff