Thursday, April 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were steady to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Anxiety in the world marketplace has eased just a bit today, regarding a potential imminent U.S. military strike against Syria. President Trump has just tweeted that the timeframe of a strike could be sooner or later.
The key “outside markets” on Thursday morning see the U.S. dollar index higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and trading near $67.00 a barrel. Brent crude oil is trading near $72.00 a barrel. Crude oil prices on Wednesday hit a more-than-two-year high, as tensions between the U.S., Syria and Russia have heightened this week.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, import and export price indexes, and monthly chain store sales.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The recent “collapse in volatility” in the e-mini S&P index makes me suspect a bigger daily price move is coming soon. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 2,666.25 and then at 2,672.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at this week’s low of 2,607.50 and then at 2,584.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 6,663.25 and then at 6,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 6,589.75 and then at Wednesday’s low of 6,550.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 146 14/32 and then at this week’s high of 146 28/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 145 14/32 and then at 145 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 121.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 121.03.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 120.21.5 and then at last week’s low of 120.16.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 89.665 and then at 90.000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 89.160 and then at 89.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have gained good upside momentum this week, as prices hit a more-than-two-year high Wednesday. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of $67.45 and then at $68.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $66.00 and then at $65.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures were mixed overnight. Cold weather in the U.S. midwest is bullish for the grains, as it is likely to prompt planting delays for corn and possibly soybeans, and it’s also hurt the wheat crop. Traders are awaiting this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.