Thursday, May 31–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.
There were no major, new developments overnight on the geopolitical front.
Today is the last trading day of the month, which makes it a more important trading day from a technical perspective.
Traders are awaiting Friday’s U.S. jobs report for May. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up around 190,000. Wednesday’s ADP jobs report showed a rise of 178,000.
The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading just below $68.00 a barrel.
Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is lower on more profit taking and a corrective pullback after hitting hit a 10.5-month high on Tuesday.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, personal income and outlays, the ISM-Chicago business survey, pending home sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but trading has turned choppy and sideways recently. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the May high of 2,746.75 and then at 2,675.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2,700.00 and then at this week’s low of 2,679.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the May high of 7,038.00 and then at 7,075.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen the overnight low of 7,000.25 and then at Wednesday’s low of 6,944.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading after solid gains scored Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 144 23/32 and then at 145 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 143 30/32 and then at 143 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading again. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.11.0 and then at 120.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119.30.0 and then at 119.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is weaker on more of a corrective pullback after hitting a 10.5-month high on Tuesday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 93.665 and then at 94.000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 93.250 and then at 93.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
July Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading as the market pauses. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of $68.67 and then at $69.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $67.00 and then Wednesday’s low of at $66.35. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures were firmer overnight, on corrective bounces from solid losses on Wednesday that did produce near-term technical damage. Generally good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt at present is bearish for the grains.