Monday, August 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.
The foreign exchange market has stabilized following recent turmoil that was mainly the fault of a severely depreciated Turkish lira. The Chinese yuan has climbed today on reports Chinese economic officials want to stimulate spending on infrastructure projects. Metals markets are in rally mode to start the trading week, on optimism coming from China—a major metals importer.
A highlight of the trading week will be the annual meeting of world central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, late this week. The Fed’s FOMC minutes are also due out Wednesday afternoon.
The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index higher and not far below last week’s 14-month high. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $66.00 a barrel. Oil prices hit a seven-week low late last week and are still trending lower.
There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid an uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the August high of 2,863.75 and then at 2,875.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Friday’s low of 2,835.00 and then at 2,817.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher in early trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 7,434.50 and then at last week’s high of 7,479.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 7,386.00 and then at 7,350.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a fledgling uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 145 3/32 and then at 145 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 144 19/32 and then at last week’s low of 144 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 120.16.0 and then at last week’s high of 120.18.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 120.09.0 and then at last week’s low of 120.01.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 96.560 and then at last week’s high of 96.865. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 95.970 and then at 95.750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are near weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded and prices are trending lower. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of $66.39 and then at $67.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $65.00 and then at last week’s low of $64.43. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Reports of trade talks resuming between the U.S. and Russia later this month are supportive for the grains. Focus this week will be on the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour of corn and soybeans.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff