Tuesday, June 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors worldwide are still jittery amid the U.S.-China trade dispute that shows no signs of ebbing. Conflicting comments from Trump administration officials on Monday, regarding sanctions against Chinese firms, only added more uncertainty to the matter.
China loosening its monetary policy this week has some in the marketplace wondering if the Chinese government is devaluing its currency, the yuan, in order to counter the negative impact of U.S. trade tariffs on China’s overall trade.
The key “outside markets” today find the U.S. dollar index higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and trading above $68.00 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, the consumer confidence index, and the Richmond Fed business survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are modestly lower in early U.S. trading. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 2,728.50 and then at 2,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Monday’s low of 2,700.50 and then at 2,679.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are now fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is barely above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 7,087.50 and then at 7,100.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 7,040.50 and then at Monday’s low of 6,995.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the June high of 144 25/32 and then at 145 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 143 30/32 and then at 143 13/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 120.06.0 and then at 120.12.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119.26.5 and then at 119.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 94.550 and then at 95.000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 93.830 and then at 93.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
August Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of $69.44 and then at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $67.50 and then at $67.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures were mixed overnight as bulls try to stabilize the market after recent strong losses. Bears are in technical command. World ag trade worries and very good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt remain bearish. However, hot weather is coming for the region late this week, but traders are so far not worried about that. It’s going to take a weather market scare to jump-start rallies in the stumbling grain markets.