Tuesday, September 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed but mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell into bear market territory this week, meaning the stock index is down 20% from its most recent high.
World trade matters remain on the front burner of the marketplace early this week. Reports said the U.S. and European Union may be getting closer to a trade agreement after recent meetings.
The British pound is firmer this week on reports the U.K. and the EU are close to a Brexit agreement.
The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index near steady. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and trading just below $68.00 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is again light and includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, and monthly wholesale trade.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid an uptrend still in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 2,893.00 and then at 2,900.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at last week’s low of 2,869.50 and then at 2,860.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
December Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 7,513.25 and then at 7,550.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at last week’s low of 7,420.50 and then at 7,400.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are down in early U.S. trading and hovering near a four-week low. Bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading as a fledgling downtrend is in place on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 142 27/32 and then at 143 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 142 13/32 and then at 142 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit another four-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading as prices have been trending lower for three weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119.22.5 and then at 119.28.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119.14.5 and then at 119.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 95.280 and then at 95.500. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 94.450 and then at 94.250. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The bulls still appear to be exhausted to suggest a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of $68.52 and then at $69.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $67.33 and then at $67.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were narrowly mixed overnight. Grain market bears are still in technical control. Focus this week will be on Wednesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand reports. Trading today will likely be subdued ahead of the government update on supply and demand.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff