Friday, September 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Global stock markets were mostly firmer in quieter trading overnight. A lack of major news developments in the marketplace late this week is keeping equities subdued. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.
Gold prices are firmer today on short covering in the futures market and bargain hunting in the cash market, following this week’s selling pressure.
Friday is the last trading day of the month and of the quarter, which makes it an extra special day from a charting perspective. Monthly (or quarterly) high or low closes on the last trading day of the month (or quarter) are very technically significant.
In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer prices were up 1.5% in September, year-on-year. That rate was unchanged from August and was just below market expectations. The European Central Bank wants to see an annual inflation rate of close to 2.0%.
The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S trading Friday. Greenback bulls have had a good week. A bullish head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart for the USDX, which is a technical clue that a market bottom is in place. Meantime, the
The other key outside market on Friday morning sees Nymex crude oil futures slightly higher. Prices Thursday hit a five-month high. The oil bulls have the near-term technical advantage. However, there are stiff chart resistance levels just overhead in the crude oil market.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, the ISM Chicago business survey, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a contract and record high on Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 2,509.25 and then at 2,525.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2,493.00 and then at this week’s low of 2,485.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 5,963.00 and then at 5,980.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 5,911.25 and then at 5,900.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady as the bulls are trying to stabilize the market after prices hit a two-month low on Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 153 4/32 and then at 154 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 152 1/32 and then at 151 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady after hitting a 2.5-month low on Thursday. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 125.20.0 and then at 125.25.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 125.13.0 and then at 125.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices Thursday hit a six-week high. Greenback bulls still have some upside momentum. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 93.495 and then at 93.750. Shorter-term support is seen at 92.810 and then at 92.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
November Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices Thursday hit a five-month high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $52.00 and then at this week’s high of $52.86. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $51.22 and then at $51.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures markets were slightly lower again overnight. The resiliency of the grain markets the past couple weeks has been impressive, which makes me suspect that harvest lows are in place and that prices will at least work sideways, if not sideways-to-higher, into the end of the year. But don’t look for big rallies right during the U.S. corn and soybean harvesting.