Monday, March 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly higher openings when the New York day session begins.
Reports Sunday said Chinese trade officials have agreed to sit down and negotiate with U.S. trade officials regarding the U.S.’s issues regarding bilateral trade with China. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin on Sunday said the U.S. was “working on a pathway” to reach agreement with the Chinese. And the South Koreans have agreed to some U.S. terms on U.S. trade disputes with that country. All of the above had made a world trade war less likely. This has put some risk appetite back into the world marketplace.
The key “outside markets” on Monday morning see the U.S. dollar index lower and hitting a five-week low overnight. The greenback bears have downside momentum. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower but hit a two-month high overnight.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading, on a corrective bounce from last week’s solid losses. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Friday’s high of 2,658.75 and then at 2,675.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2,600.00 and then at last week’s low of 2,586.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
June Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective bounce from last week’s strong selling pressure. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 6,669.25 and 6,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 6,600.00 and then at 6,550.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 145 even and then at last week’s high of 145 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 144 even and then at 143 22/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.23.5 and then at last week’s high of 120.28.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 120.13.0 and then at 120.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is lower and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading today. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 89.105 and then at Friday’s high of 89.345. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 88.755 and then at 88.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a two-month high overnight. Bulls have good upside momentum to suggest a push to a new multi-year high soon. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $66.55 and then at $67.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $65.00 and then at Friday’s low of $64.11. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures were mixed to firmer overnight. Support came from a lessening of trade war fears. Weekly USDA export inspections data is out today. On Thursday the USDA planting intentions report is due out, which is one of the most important reports of the year for the grain markets.