Monday, April 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace mostly took in stride the U.S.-led missile attack on Syria on Saturday. The outcome is what most had expected to happen when they went home for the weekend on Friday. However, what is still uncertain is if more U.S. missile strikes are coming, and how Russia will react to the situation. The U.S. is preparing to slap more economic sanctions on Russia. Still, the sense of traders and investors at present is that the conflict will not escalate.
The key U.S. data point of the day will be the March retail sales report. Forecasters expect sales in March rose 0.3%.
The key “outside markets” on Monday morning see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are also lower and trading above $66.00 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the retail sales report, the Empire State manufacturing survey, manufacturing and trade inventories, the NAHB housing market index, and Treasury international capital data.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 2,680.50 and then at 2,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,660.75 and then at 2,650.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
June Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 6,713.00 and then at 6,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 6,642.25 and then at 6,600.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 145 even and then at the overnight high of 145 13/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 144 21/32 and then at 144 10/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.15.0 and then at 120.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 120.05.0 and then at 120.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 89.555 and then at 90.000. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 89.020 and then at the March low of 88.530. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are lower on profit taking after hitting a 3.5-year high late last week. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $67.00 and then at last week’s high of $67.76. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $66.14 and then at $66.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures were mixed to weaker overnight. Cold weather in the U.S. midwest is bullish for the grains, as it is likely to prompt planting delays for corn and possibly soybeans, and it’s also hurt the wheat crop.