Friday, September 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Global equity markets were mostly weaker overnight, heading into an uncertain weekend that sees a major hurricane bearing down on Florida and a still-very-worrisome U.S.-North Korea geopolitical situation. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.
Gold prices are higher and hit a 12-month high overnight, on more safe-haven demand and amid a depreciating U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market.
The key outside markets on Friday morning see the U.S. dollar index solidly lower and at a fresh 2.5-year low. The sharp declines in the greenback this week are becoming a worrisome factor for world financial markets. Combined with Hurricane Harvey smashing Texas last week, Hurricane Irma giving Florida a direct hit in the coming days could produce enough economic damage in the U.S. to prevent the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates again this year.
Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are slightly lower this morning.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes the monthly wholesale trade report and consumer credit.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 2,469.50 and then at last week’s high of 2,477.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at this week’s low of 2,443.75 and then at 2,430.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 5,991.50 and then at 6,000.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 5,940.00 and then at 5,925.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit another contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 158 9/32 and then at 159 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 157 19/32 and then at 157 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a contract high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight contract high of 127.28.5 and then at 128.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 127.19.0 and then at 127.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is lower and hit a 2.5-year low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 91.275 and then at 91.500. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 90.795 and then at 90.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $49.42 and then at $50.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $48.50 and then at $48.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures markets were firmer overnight. There are early chart clues that market bottoms are in place (seasonal harvest lows) for corn and beans. And if corn and beans have put in market bottoms, it’s likely wheat has, too. Still, market bottoms being in place do not automatically suggest price uptrends are under way. It could mean choppy and sideways trading at lower levels for some time. U.S. corn harvest is just getting under way in some southern Corn Belt areas.