Wednesday, March 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly lower overnight, led by declines in the technology sector amid worries about increased government regulation of social media firms. U.S. stock indexes are again pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. World stock markets have become wobbly again, as investor risk appetite is slipping away. Now, the technical clues the U.S. stock indexes have put in major tops are mounting again.
The key “outside markets” on Wednesday morning see the U.S. dollar index higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading just below $65.00 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the advance economic indicators report, the third estimate of fourth-quarter GDP, pending home sales, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,650.00 and then at this week’s high of 2,679.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,600.00 and then at last week’s low of 2,586.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
June Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are lower and hit a six-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 6,582.25 and 6,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 6,485.25 and then at 6,450.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a seven-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 146 9/32 and then at 146 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 145 13/32 and then at 145 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a seven-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the bulls have momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 121.09.0 and then at 121.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 120.28.5 and then at 120.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is higher on short covering after hitting a five-week low Tuesday. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bearish as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral to bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 89.250 and then at 89.500. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 88.895 and then at this week’s low of 88.530. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $65.00 and then at $66.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $64.38 and then at $64.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures were weaker overnight. Grain market bulls have faded recently. On Thursday the USDA planting intentions report is due out, which is one of the most important reports of the year for the grain markets.