Monday, April 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Solid corporate earnings reports released recently have supported world stock markets.
Two important meetings will have the attention of the world marketplace this week: the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday, and the U.S. high-level trade delegation that will be in China later this week. And then on Friday is the U.S. employment report from the Labor Department—arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month.
The key “outside markets” on Monday morning see the U.S. dollar index trading firmer. Prices last week hit a 3.5-month high. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading just above $67.00 a barrel. The U.S. oil rig count hit a three-year high last week, which is pressing oil prices lower today.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes personal income and outlays, the ISM Chicago business survey, pending home sales and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 2,688.50 and then at 2,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,670.00 and then at 2,650.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 6,772.00 and then at 6,800.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 6,666.25 and then at 6,623.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 143 9/32 and then at 143 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 142 30/32 and then at 142 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 119.17.5 and then at 119.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 119.08.0 and then at the contract low of 118.31.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S. trading today. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 91.790 and then at 92.000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 91.280 and then at 91.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are still in firm near-term technical control. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $68.00 and then at the overnight high of $68.20. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $67.00 and then at $66.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures were higher overnight. Farmers are in their fields at full speed, planting corn and preparing for soybean planting. Yet, the grains are in rally mode due to world supply concerns and a damaged U.S. HRW wheat crop. I also suspect that big speculative (fund) money is starting to flow back into the grains on the long side.