Friday, November 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed to firmer openings ahead of the opening of the New York day session. U.S. stock indexes this week have hit record highs. The U.S. stock market closes early today.
Some upbeat economic data coming out of Germany Thursday and Friday suggest the political instability there has not impacted the economy, so far. The German Ifo business climate index came in at 117.5 in November—well above market expectations and at a record high. The Ifo report said the German economy is on track for a boom. This news rallied the Euro currency to a five-week high on Friday.
The important outside markets on Friday morning see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower and hitting a five-week low. The greenback bulls have faded recently and prices are in a near-term downtrend.
Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and hit a more-than-two-year high Friday. Oil bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but stiff chart resistance layers lie just above the market. Traders are looking ahead to next week’s OPEC meeting.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes the U.S. flash manufacturing and services PMIs.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and near this week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 2,600.50 and then at 2,615.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,589.50 and then at 2,579.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a contract and record high overnight. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 6,400.00 and then at 6,425.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 6,375.75 and then at 6,350.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 154 16/32 and then at the November high of 154 26/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 153 17/32 and then at 153 10/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 125.04.5 and then at 125.10.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 124.19.0 and then at last week’s low of 124.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is weaker and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bearish as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 93.500 and then at this week’s high of 94.085. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 92.945 and then at 92.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
January Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a more-than-two-year high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $59.00 and then at 59.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $57.75 and then at $57.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
GRAINS
Grain futures markets were closed overnight. Traders will closely examine this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report. Corn and soybean bulls have gained a bit of momentum this week, to suggest those markets can at least trade sideways into the end of the year, if not sideways to higher.