Friday, June 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.
In overnight news, the Euro zone annual inflation rate was reported at 2.0% in June versus 1.9% in May, year-on-year.
The key “outside markets” today find the U.S. dollar index lower on a corrective pullback after hitting a 12-month high on Thursday. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and trading just below $74.00 a barrel. Oil prices Thursday hit a 3.5-year high.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, the ISM Chicago business survey, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,748.00 and then at this week’s high of 2,758.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,716.75 and then at this week’s low of 2,700.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 7,151.50 and then at 7,200.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 7,045.00 and then at 7,000.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 145 11/32 and then at the May high of 145 28/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 144 25/32 and then at 144 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 120.14.5 and then at 120.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 120.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 119.26.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a contract and 12-month high Thursday. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 95.000 and then at the contract high of 95.255. Shorter-term support is seen at 94.200 and then at this week’s low of 93.830. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
August Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and trading just below Thursday’s 3.5-year high of $74.03 a barrel. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $74.03 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $72.93 and then at $72.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures were higher overnight on short covering ahead of today’s key USDA reports. Bears are still in technical command. World ag trade worries and very good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt remain bearish. Hot weather is coming for the region the next few days, but traders are so far not worried about that. It’s going to take a weather market scare to jump-start rallies in the stumbling grain markets.