Thursday, June 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are at contract or multi-month highs amid keener risk appetites among traders and investors in the world marketplace.
In overnight news, the Euro zone reported its gross domestic product (GDP) rose at an annual rate of 1.5% in the first quarter of this year. That is well down from the 2.8% growth rate seen in the bloc in the fourth quarter of last year.
Traders are looking ahead to this weekend’s Group of Seven meeting between the major industrialized countries of the world. Trade and import tariffs will likely be the major topic of discussion among the finance ministers of the major world economies.
The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices slightly weaker and trading just above $65.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower again today on more of a corrective pullback from recent good gains.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the IBD/TIPP economic optimism report, monthly chain store sales, and consumer credit.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer and hit another 2.5-month high in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and also have momentum on their side. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 2,783.50 and then at 2,800.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2,760.00 and then at 2,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly higher and hit a contract high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 7,258.00 and then at 7,275.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 7,200.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 7,161.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are back in firm near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 142 18/32 and then at 143 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at today’s low of 142 1/32 and then at 141 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, and bears have momentum again. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119.11.0 and then at 119.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 119.00.0 and then at 118.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is lower again and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are now fading a bit. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 93.120 and then at Wednesday’s high of 93.410. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 92.760 and then at 92.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
July Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Recent technical damage inflicted still suggests more downside pressure in the near term. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $66.04 and then at $67.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $65.00 and then at this week’s low of $64.22. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures were steady to higher overnight. Corn and soybean bulls are fading, but wheat bulls are gaining upside momentum. Traders will closely examine today’s weekly USDA export sales report. Good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt at present is bearish for the grains.