Thursday, February 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight and mostly overlooked the volatility seen in the U.S. stock market Wednesday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.
China and South Korean markets were closed Thursday for the Lunar New Year holiday.
Following the hotter-than-expected U.S. consumer price index report on Wednesday that initially roiled the marketplace, traders and investors today will get the U.S. producer price index report for January. The January PPI is forecast to come in at up 0.4% from December, and up 0.2% excluding food and energy.
The key outside markets on Thursday morning see the U.S. dollar index lower again. The greenback is taking a beating this week and the USDX is now back close to the multi-year low scored in January. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and trading just below $61.00 a barrel.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Empire State manufacturing survey, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing market index, and Treasury international capital data.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 2,719.50 and then at 2,726.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,693.50 and then at 2,675.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
March Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 6,750.00 and then at 6,800.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 6,674.50 and then at 6,650.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading and near this week’s contract low. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 143 23/32 and then at 144 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 143 4/32 and then at 143 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.13.0 and then at 120.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at today’s contract low of 120.01.0 and then at 120.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and have regained downside momentum this week. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 89.000 and then at 89.500. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 88.490 and then at the January low of 88.255. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
March Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The bulls have regained some upside momentum after solid gains scored Wednesday. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at today’s high of $61.55 and then at $62.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $60.00 and then at $59.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures were mixed overnight. Traders are awaiting this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report. The grain markets are in near-term price uptrends, to suggest more sideways-to-higher price action in the coming days, or longer.