Wednesday, March 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.
The world marketplace is still watching developments in the Trump administration after President Trump unceremoniously fired his secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, on Tuesday. The Trump administration turmoil is an unsettling element for the marketplace due to the uncertainty regarding what could happen next.
The key economic data point of the day Wednesday is the U.S. producer price index report for February. PPI is forecast to come in at up 0.1% from January. The U.S. consumer price index was reported on Tuesday and it was deemed tame.
In overnight news, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said in a speech in Frankfurt that the ECB is not yet prepared to exit its quantitative easing of monetary policy due to recent higher volatility in many markets, the potential for a world trade war and due to the recent strength in the Euro currency.
The key “outside markets” on Wednesday morning see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are also modestly up.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, retail sales, manufacturing and trade inventories, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 2,802.50 and then at 2,825.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,758.25 and then at 2,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
March Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s record high of 7,188.50 and then at 7,200.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 7,018.25 and then at 7,000.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 144 19/32 and then at 145 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Tuesday’s low of 143 13/32 and then at 143 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 120.17.0 and then at the March high of 120.23.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Tuesday’s low of 120.02.5 and then at 120.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S. trading today. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 89.635 and then at last week’s high of 89.930. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 89.095 and then at last week’s low of 88.915. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Trading has been choppy recently. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $62.33 and then at $63.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the March low of $59.95 and then at $59.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures were mixed overnight. Grain market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but they have faded a bit recently and needed to show some more strength soon.