Friday, December 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.
There was upbeat economic data coming out of China and Japan overnight, to help boost Asian equities. China’s November exports were up 12.3%, year-on-year, which is double the rate that was forecast. November Chinese imports were up 17.7%, better than the 12.0% rise that was anticipated for November.
The European Union and the United Kingdom have finally reached an agreement on Brexit, which buoyed European stock markets and the British pound.
The U.S. economic report highlight of the trading week will be Friday morning’s November U.S. employment report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to be up 195,000. Wednesday’s U.S. ADP national employment report for November showed a rise of 190,000 jobs.
The key “outside markets” Friday morning see the U.S. dollar index higher and at a three-week high as the greenback bulls have had a very good week. Meantime,
Nymex crude oil futures prices are firmer. However, the price uptrend in crude oil has stalled, which begins to suggest a near-term market top is in place.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey and monthly wholesale trade.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. There are no strong, early chart clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,650.00 and then at the contract high of 2,667.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at this week’s low of 2,622.50 and then at 2,606.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
March Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 6,378.50 and then at 6,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 6,350.00 and then at the overnight low of 6,339.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage with this week’s early gains. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 153 6/32 and then at 153 21/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 152 10/32 and then at 152 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 124.11.5 and then at 124.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 124.02.5 and then at 124.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have upside momentum. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 93.750 and then at 94.000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 93.440 and then at 93.150. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
January Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the price uptrend has stalled. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $57.57 and then at 58.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $56.54 and then at $56.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures markets were firmer overnight. Corn and wheat market bulls are still struggling, even though my bias is that these markets have put in, or are close to putting in, market bottoms. Soybean bulls have also lost their upside momentum.