Tuesday, February 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed but mostly lower overnight. Worries about rising world inflation are keeping stock market traders and investors edgy. They also still worry about high daily volatility returning to the stock markets. U.S. stock indexes are pointing toward lower openings when the New York day session begins.
The key “outside markets” on Tuesday morning see the U.S. dollar index lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are near steady. The International Energy Agency on Tuesday warned the big increase in U.S. shale oil production will weigh down oil prices this year and glut the world oil market.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, and the NFIB small business index.
The big U.S. economic report of the week will be Wednesday’s consumer price index report. CPI for January is forecast to come in at up 0.4% from December and up 1.9% year-on-year.
In overnight news, the U.K. reported its consumer price index at up a hot 3.0% in January, year-on-year.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Major near-term chart damage has been inflicted recently to suggest the index has put in at least a near-term market top and will have trouble sustaining any new uptrend. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 2,659.25 and then at this week’s high of 2,671.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at this week’s low of 2,620.00 and then at 2,600.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
March Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. With the recent major near-term chart damage, there are chart clues that at least a near-term market top is in place and that any price uptrend renewing is still doubtful. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 6,567.50 and then at 6,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at this week’s low of 6,414.25 and then at 6,400.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low Monday. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 145 6/32 and then at 145 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 144 6/32 and then at 144 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering in a bear market. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 121.04.5 and then at 121.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 120.20.0 and then at the contract low of 120.17.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and have regained downside momentum this week. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 90.070 and then at Monday’s high of 90.310. Shorter-term support is seen at 89.500 and then at 89.250. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
March Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The bulls have faded badly recently to suggest a near-term market top is in place. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $60.00 and then at Monday’s high of $60.83. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $58.07 and then at $57.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures were slightly lower overnight. The grain markets are in near-term price uptrends, to suggest more sideways-to-higher price action in the coming days, or longer.