Friday, August 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
U.S. and world stock markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight.
Low- to mid-level trade talks between the U.S. and China have ended with reportedly no significant results. Each country on Thursday levied new tariffs on each other’s products. This matter continues to be a drag on some U.S. agricultural markets.
A highlight of the trading week will be the annual meeting of world central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that begins in earnest today. Past years’ meetings have produced important proclamations from world central bankers. Fed Chairman Powell is slated to speak this morning at the symposium.
Gold prices are posting modest gains today as the bulls have stabilized the market after recent selling pressure drove prices to a more-than-one-year low. Reports overnight said Asian demand for gold bullion is picking up, on perceived bargain hunting.
The key outside market today find the U.S. dollar index lower. The greenback bears have had the better week. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading just below $69.00 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes durable goods orders.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below this week’s seven-month high. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid an uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 2,874.00 and then at the January high of 2,889.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at this week’s low of 2,846.25 and then at 2,830.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are modestly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 7,475.00 and then at 7,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 7,400.00 and then at this week’s low of 7,352.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage amid an uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 145 24/32 and then at 146 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 145 even and then at this week’s low of 144 19/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after prices Wednesday hit a 2.5-month high. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.18.5 and then at this week’s high of 120.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 120.13.5 and then at this week’s low of 120.09.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading today. Bears have had the better week but the bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 95.660 and then at 96.000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 94.830 and then at 94.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are solidly up and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have upside momentum. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $69.19 and then at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $68.50 and then at $67.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Bears are having a very good week in the grains. Focus this week has been on the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour of corn and soybeans. Results of the tour showed big U.S. crops to be harvested. Also, beneficial rains have fallen in the U.S. Corn Belt this week.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff