Thursday, April 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed in quieter trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.
The key “outside markets” on Thursday morning see the U.S. dollar index trading slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are also higher, hit a 3.5-year high, and are trading near $69.00 a barrel. Oil traders are awaiting an OPEC meeting that takes place on Friday.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, and leading economic indicators data.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on mild profit taking from good gains scored earlier this week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 2,718.50 and then at 2,735.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2,778.75 and then at this week’s low of 2,660.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
June Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are weaker on profit taking after hitting a three-week high on Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 6,867.00 and then at 6,900.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 6,796.75 and then at 6,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 144 30/32 and then at 145 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 144 even and then at 143 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.06.5 and then at 120.12.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119.30.0 and then at 119.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 89.555 and then at 90.000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 89.235 and then at this week’s low of 88.945. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a 3.5-year high in early U.S. trading. Bulls are still in firm near-term technical control. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $69.27 and then at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $68.00 and then at $67.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures were mixed overnight. Traders will closely examine today’s weekly USDA export sales report. The cold, wet and snowy weather in seen the U.S. Midwest the past several weeks is forecast to end. Farmers could be in their fields as early as later next week, planting corn.