Wednesday, September 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed in quieter trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins, on some mild profit taking. The U.S. stock indexes have set record highs this week.
Gold prices are higher in pre-U.S.-session trading. Gold prices are still in a near-term uptrend despite some profit-taking pressure seen this week.
In overnight news, the Euro zone reported its July industrial output rose by 0.1% from June and was up 3.2%, year-on-year.
The key outside markets on Wednesday morning see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are higher this morning.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the producer price index, the weekly DOE liquid energy stock report and the monthly Treasury budget statement.
The key U.S. economic data point of the week is Thursday’s consumer price index report for August. That report is expected to show a rise of 0.4%. Notions are growing that low inflation in the U.S. and the Euro zone will keep the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank from tightening their monetary policies as soon as they would like.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are weaker but did set another contract and record high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight contract high of 2,495.50 and then at 2,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Tuesday’s low of 2,485.25 and then at 2,475.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading today. Prices are not far below this month’s record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 6,012.25 and then at the contract and record high of 6,025.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 5,975.25 and then at 5,950.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded this week and need to show more power soon. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 156 3/32 and then at this week’s high of 156 29/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 155 2/32 and then at 154 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer on a corrective bounce from recent selling pressure. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.25.0 and then at 127.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 126.20.5 and then at this week’s low of 126.18.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 91.805 and then at 92.000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 91.165 and then at the contract low of 90.795. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid recent choppy trading. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $49.00 and then at the September high of $49.42. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $48.12 and then at Tuesday’s low of $47.73. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures markets were firmer overnight, on short covering from Tuesday’s selling pressure in the wake of a bearish monthly USDA supply and demand report. Bears are back in firm near-term technical control of the grains, but my bias is still that there is not a lot of downside price action left in the grains.