Monday, July 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. It’s been quieter summertime trading in the Northern Hemisphere markets recently.
In focus this week will be central bank meetings of the U.S., Bank of Japan and Bank of England. Only the BOE is expected to make any policy move—raising its interest rates slightly. The FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve begins Tuesday and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement.
The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $69.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker early today.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes pending home sales and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,835.00 and then at last week’s high of 2,849.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2,800.00 and then at last week’s low of 2,792.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly lower in early trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but are now fading a bit. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the 7,350.00 and then at 7,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 7,251.00 and then at 7,200.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and hit a six-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 143 even and then at 143 8/32 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 142 13/32 and then at 142 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119.15.5 and then at 119.22.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 119.08.0 and then at 119.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but trading has turned choppy and sideways. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 94.555 and then at 94.700. Shorter-term support is seen at 94.000 and then at 93.870. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $70.00 and then at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $69.00 and then at $68.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were higher overnight. Bulls have gained upside momentum recently. Weather in the Corn Belt is still mostly benign, but warmer temps are expected in early August. Still, no serious weather markets have occurred this summer.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff