Monday, November 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. government is closed today, as is the cash U.S. Treasury market, for the Veterans Day holiday.
The civil unrest in Hong Kong escalated over the weekend. That has Asian equity markets more uneasy.
There were no new developments on the U.S.-China trade war front over the weekend. President Trump on Friday sounded a bit less upbeat on the situation than news reports were suggesting late last week. Still, Trump said the trade talks were going “very nicely” but added the U.S. is not rolling back all of the import tariffs on Chinese products.
The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $56.35 a barrel.
There is no U.S. economic data due for release Monday as the government is closed for a holiday.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are modestly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 3,097.00 and then at 3,120.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at last week’s low of 3,063.00 and then at 3,050.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 8,261.75 and then at the contract high of 8,282.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 8,200.00 and then at last week’s low of 8,161.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering as bulls are trying to stabilize the market. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a five-week-old downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 157 7/32 and then at 158 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 156 3/32 and then at last week’s low of 155 26/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have lost their chart advantage amid a five-week-old downtrend in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 128.07.0 and then at last week’s low of 127.31.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Friday’s high of 128.22.0 and then at 128.28.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 98.245 and then at 98.500. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 97.945 and then at 97.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $57.40 and then at last week’s high of $57.88. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $55.76 and then at $55.00.
Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
US grain futures prices were lower overnight, with corn losing around 2 cents, soybeans down 4 to 5 cents and wheat 3 to 5 cents lower. Last Friday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report was deemed a bit friendly for corn and mostly neutral for soybeans and wheat. There were no new developments on the U.S.-China trade war front over the weekend, but grain traders are a bit more downbeat this week on the matter after President Trump on Friday said the trade talks were going “very nicely” but added the U.S. is not rolling back all of the import tariffs on Chinese products, as some news reports stated late last week. The U.S. government is closed Monday so there will be no USDA data released. Limiting selling interest in grain futures this week is the Midwest US weather, which is cold and snowy early this week. That will hamstring harvesting of corn and soybeans and could cause quality problems for the crops still in the field.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff