Friday, April 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is again rattled at least a bit as U.S. President Donald Trump said late Thursday he might impose another $100 billion in tariffs on China’s imports. Meantime, China’s news outlets are already saying China will fight the U.S. on trade matters to the bitter end. Trump has already slapped $50 billion in tariffs on China’s products. In the near term, look for more market volatility coming from this situation. Such should be a positive for the gold and silver markets.
Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s important U.S. employment situation report for March from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to come in at up 178,000. Wednesday’s ADP jobs number came in much higher than expected, at up 241,000, which hints this morning’s job number may also come in hot.
The key “outside markets” on Friday morning see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower and trading just above $63.00 a barrel.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the consumer installment credit report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Trading has been choppy recently. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 2,672.25 and then at 2,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,619.75 and then at 2,600.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
June Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 6,611.25 and then at this week’s high of 6,654.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 6,485.25 and then at 6,450.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 145 12/32 and then at 146 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 144 25/32 and then at 144 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.25.0 and then at 121.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 120.16.5 and then at 120.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a five-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral to bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 90.295 and then at the March high of 90.490. Shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 89.740 and then at this week’s low of 89.415. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $64.12 and then at $65.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $62.50 and then at this week’s low of $62.06. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures were lower overnight, as traders are again spooked about a U.S.-China trade war, after the latest U.S. threats. Still, it’s likely that the grains have already mostly discounted the matter, unless it deteriorates very seriously—which is a possibility.