Friday, June 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Corrective bounces are featured in the stock indexes after some very recent selling pressure.
In overnight news, it was quiet on the China-U.S. trade dispute front. Traders and analysts are waiting for the latest development in the seemingly escalating situation.
The Euro Zone’s Markit composite purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 54.8 in June from 54.1 in May—the first increase in five months. A reading above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector.
The key “outside markets” today find the U.S. dollar index weaker on profit taking after hitting an 11-month high on Thursday.
Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $66.50 a barrel. Oil traders are awaiting the outcome of the OPEC meeting that began Friday in Vienna, Austria. Saudi Arabia and Russia are expected to announce they will increase oil production. This meeting is expected to be one of the most contentious in years.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. flash manufacturing PMI and the flash services PMI.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 2,786.75 and then at last week’s high of 2,796.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,749.25 and then at this week’s low of 2,735.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices Thursday hit a contract high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 7,300.00 and then at the contract high of 7,358.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 7,222.00 and then at 7,200.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 144 11/32 and then at this week’s high of 144 25/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 143 1/32 and then at 142 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 119.30.0 and then at this week’s high of 120.06.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 119.13.5 and then at 119.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower on a corrective pullback after hitting a contract and 11-month high on Thursday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 94.550 and then at 95.000. Shorter-term support is seen at 94.000 and then at 93.750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
August Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $66.65 and then at $67.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $65.71 and then at $65.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures were mixed overnight. World ag trade worries and very good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt are still bearish. However, very hot weather is coming for the region next week. It’s still my bias the corn and soybean markets have put in market bottoms.