Thursday, April 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Upbeat corporate earnings reports recently are working in favor of the stock market bulls today. However, worries about rising inflation are limiting the upside in world stock markets. The marketplace has viewed with trepidation this week the move above 3.0% in U.S. 10-year Treasury note yields.
The European central bank holds its regular monetary policy meeting Thursday. No change in policy is expected.
The key “outside markets” on Thursday morning see the U.S. dollar index trading slightly up and hitting another 3.5-month high overnight. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $68.50 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the advance economic indicators report, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey, and durable goods orders.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are modestly up in early U.S. trading. The bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 2,654.75 and then at 2,675.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,639.50 and then at 2,625.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 6,612.00 and then at 6,650.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 6,559.25 and then at 6,500.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer on short covering after hitting a two-month low on Wednesday. Bears are in strong command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 142 16/32 and then at 143 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 141 17/32 and then at the contract low of 141 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer on short covering after hitting a contract and multi-year low on Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 119.16.0 and then at 119.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 118.31.0 and then at 118.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is slightly higher and hit another 3.5-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral to bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 91.120 and then at 91.500. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 90.880 and then at 90.515. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are modestly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls are in solid near-term technical control. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $69.00 and then at the April high of $69.55. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $68.00 and then at this week’s low of $67.11. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures were mixed overnight. Traders will closely examine this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report. Farmers are in their fields at full speed late this week, planting corn and preparing for soybean planting. World supply-and-demand fundamentals favor the bulls for soybeans and corn, but favor the bears for wheat.