Monday, June 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are in generally upbeat moods following Friday’s stronger U.S. jobs report and easing concerns about the political situation in Italy.
So far early this week, the marketplace is not reacting much to reports over the weekend that said the U.S. and China have made no progress in their trade talks. Meantime, the U.S. is getting heavily criticized by the European Union, Canada and Mexico for its protectionist trade posture.
In other news overnight, the Euro zone producer price index for April was unchanged from March and up 2.0%, year-on-year. Those numbers were lower than forecast.
The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading just above $65.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the ISN New York report on business, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, and the employment trends index.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer and hit a nine-week high in early U.S. trading. The bulls have regained the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 2,751.25 and then at 2,765.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,733.25 and then at Friday’s low of 2,711.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher and hit an 11-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 7,150.00 and then at 7,175.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 7,097.00 and then at 7,050.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded recently. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 144 even and then at Friday’s high of 144 19/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 143 15/32 and then at 143 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading again. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119.27.0 and then at 120.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119.18.5 and then at 119.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is lower on more of a corrective pullback after hitting a 10.5-month high last week. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 93.500 and then at the overnight high of 93.725. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 93.260 and then at 93.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
July Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and hit a seven-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $66.04 and then at $67.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $65.00 and then at $64.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures were lower overnight on the dour weekend reports on U.S. trade disputes. Traders will closely examine this morning’s weekly USDA export inspections report. Generally good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt at present is bearish for the grains.