Monday, March 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The specter of a protectionist U.S. trade policy and a rise in U.S. interest rates this week are negatives for equity markets.
There was more turmoil in the Trump administration over the weekend, amid new accusations against President Trump’s administration after an FBI official was fired. However, the marketplace is not reacting much, as the situation has become almost routine.
The major economic data point of the week will be the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC) that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also holds his first press conference after the meeting. Most expect the Fed to slightly raise U.S. interest rates at this week’s meeting.
The Bank of England holds its monetary policy meeting on Thursday.
The key “outside markets” on Monday morning see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Trading in the USDX has also been choppy and sideways recently. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are also slightly lower.
There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 2,756.50 and then at 2,775.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,733.00 and then at 2,720.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
June Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 6,975.00 and then at 7,000.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 6,928.00 and then at 6,900.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after prices hit a five-week high last Friday. While bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, a fledgling price uptrend is in place on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 144 16/32 and then at 145 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 144 even and then at 143 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.11.0 and then at 120.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 120.05.0 and then at 120.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early U.S. trading today. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 89.950 and then at 90.250. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 89.450 and then at last week’s low of 89.095. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Trading has been choppy recently. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $62.60 and then at $63.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $62.00 and then at $61.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures were lower overnight. Grain market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage amid near-term price uptrends. However, the weather markets in the grains (Argentina for corn and soybeans and the U.S. Plains states for wheat) may have played out, for now.