Thursday, June 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly weaker today. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. interest rate hike on Wednesday has reminded world traders and investors that most of the major central banks of the world are likely to tighten their monetary policies in the coming months.
The European Central Bank is holding its monetary policy meeting this morning. No change is expected in ECB policy at this meeting, but the central bank is still on a path of easy money, for now. ECB President Mario Draghi’s press conference after the meeting will be closely scrutinized for clues on the future moves from the central bank. Many think Draghi will sound a more hawkish tone on monetary policy at his press conference.
Reports say the Trump administration is set to levy a new batch of tariffs on Chinese imports as soon as Friday. It is expected that China would again retaliate with its own tariffs on U.S. imports. Commodity market prices have been hit by worries of a full-blown trade war between the leading economies of the world.
The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices slightly higher and trading just below $67.00 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is lower early today.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, import and export prices, retail sales, and manufacturing and trade inventories.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading, on mild profit taking after hitting a three-month high this week. The bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 2,796.00 and then at 2,815.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,772.25 and then at 2,755.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly lower on profit taking after hitting a contract high on Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 7,250.00 and then at the contract high of 7,290.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 7,200.00 and then at this week’s low of 7,150.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on more short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 143 16/32 and then at 144 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 142 25/32 and then at 142 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 119.19.5 and then at 119.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119.06.0 and then at 119.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 93.240 and then at this week’s high of 93.685. Shorter-term support is seen at 93.000 and then at last week’s low of 92.760. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
July Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $67.00 and then at $67.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $66.51 and then at $66.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures were lower overnight. U.S. ag trade worries and good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt at present are bearish. However, some weather forecasters are talking about hot and dry conditions in late June, into early July.