Thursday, August 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed to lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings, on mild profit taking after hitting record highs on Wednesday.
A feature in the marketplace today is weakness in secondary market currencies versus the U.S. dollar. The Argentine peso hit a record low against the greenback and the Turkish lira is also under pressure today. The Brazilian real and Indian rupee are also solidly lower against the dollar. As the calendar turns to September next week, look for focus on secondary currencies and their countries’ problematic debt loads to become in keener focus among traders and investors.
Reports say the U.S. and Canada are close to agreeing on a trade deal, after the U.S and Mexico reached a deal on Monday. Optimism the U.S. will reach more trade agreements with its major trading partners has in part lifted world stock markets this week.
The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index slightly up on a corrective bounce after seeing losses this week. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading just below $70.00 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday is light and includes the weekly jobless claims report and personal income and outlays.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker on mild profit taking in early U.S. trading. The bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid an uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s contract high of 2,917.50 and then at 2,925.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2.894.25 and then at this week’s low of 2,876.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a contract and record high Wednesday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 7,674.60 and then at 7,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 7,625.00 and then at 7,600.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 144 2/32 and then at Tuesday’s high of 144 14/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 143 16/32 and then at 143 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 120.04.0 and then at Tuesday’s high of 120.09.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 119.27.5 and then at 119.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is slightly down in early U.S. trading. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 94.795 and then at 95.000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 93.930 and then at 93.750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have upside momentum. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $70.00 and then at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $69.00 and then at this week’s low of $68.21. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were firmer overnight, on more short covering and some optimism on the U.S. trade front. Bears are still in control amid big U.S. soybean and corn crop potential. Traders will closely examine this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff