Friday, April 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins on this last day of the month, on some profit taking after the major indexes hit new record highs on Thursday. Also, there is some trader and investor unease as the pandemic is still raging in some countries, including India and Brazil. There was also some downbeat economic data coming out of China Friday, as its manufacturing gauges fell due to computer chip shortages as well as supply chain and shipping logjams.
In other overnight news, Euro zone consumer price inflation for April rose 1.6%, year-on-year, following a 1.3% rise in March. The April number was a bit higher than expected but still not a figure that raises concerns.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher as the greenback is making a late-week rebound. Nymex crude oil prices are lower on profit taking after hitting a six-week high on Thursday and are trading around $63.80 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.645%.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, the employment cost index, the Chicago ISM business survey, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on routine profit taking after hitting a contract and record high on Thursday. Bulls still have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. There are no early clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 4,211.00 and then at 4,230.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,163.75 and then at 4,150.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading on some profit taking after hitting a record high Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,948.50 and then at the contract and record high of 14,064.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,818.50 and then at 13,700.50. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and have regained momentum this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 157 24/32 and then at 158 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 156 27/32 and then at this week’s low of 156 6/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have gained momentum this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 132.06.5 and then at 132.12.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.26.0 and then at this week’s low of 131.18.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading, on a routine downside correction after hitting a two-month high on Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.2161 and then at 1.2200. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.2067 and then at 1.20000. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are lower on profit taking after hitting a six-week high on Thursday. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $65.00 and then at this week’s high of $65.47. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $63.00 and then at $62.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures are weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading, on some end-of-the-month profit taking after strong gains posted recently. The grain market bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily and the longer-term charts. Stay tuned right here and in my afternoon reports, to get the very early clues on when the price trends in the grains may change.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff