Daily Morning Report

Asian stocks were mixed overnight. China’s markets were still closed for a holiday Monday. European stock markets were a down modestly following some more downbeat manufacturing data coming out of Germany. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

In focus Monday is the U.S.-China trade talks that restart this week in Washington, D.C. There is no consensus on whether this latest round of discussions will make any progress toward a trade agreement.

The World Gold Council said world central banks in August purchased 62.1 tons of gold and sold 4.8 tons. That’s way up from central banks buying a net total of 12.8 tons in July.

Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $53.00 a barrel today. The other key “outside market” sees the U.S. dollar index slightly up in early U.S. trading.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index and consumer credit.

–Jim

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Friday, October 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stocks were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are presently pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Mainland China markets were closed this week for a holiday. The wobbly U.S. stock market this week still has traders and investors nervous heading into the weekend.

Traders are awaiting Friday’s morning’s U.S. employment situation report for September from the Labor Department. Friday’s key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to be up 145,000 in September. A big miss from the consensus forecast would likely produce some volatile markets action in the immediate aftermath of the report. It would take a significantly stronger-than-expected jobs report today to sway traders and investors away from the general notion that another U.S. interest rate cut is coming from the Federal Reserve soon, following this week’s very poor U.S. and European manufacturing reports.

Reports overnight said Hong Kong authorities have banned people from wearing masks in public, following recent violent protesting there. This new rule could further escalate the civil unrest in Hong Kong. This situation could quickly move to the front burner of the marketplace, especially if mainland China gets more deeply involved in the matter.

The U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S. trading. The USDX hit a contract and two-year high earlier this week. Look for the greenback to continue to appreciate for at least the near term. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $52.70 a barrel. Oil prices are in a steep slide from the spike high scored in September.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the international trade report. Several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak today, including Chairman Jerome Powell.

–Jim

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The U.S. Treasury bond and note markets have seen solid price rebounds from their September lows, mostly on safe-haven demand amid worries about slowing global economic growth and trade. See the December T-Bond prices are trending higher again. Look for more gains in bond and note prices in the near term–and possibly sharp gains if the world stock markets remain wobbly during what can be the turbulent month of October for equities markets.–Jim

Thursday, October 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stocks were near steady to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. China markets are closed this week for a holiday.

There are still global economic growth and trade worries hanging over the world marketplace after some dour manufacturing data coming out of the U.S. and European Union earlier this week. There will be a batch of manufacturing reports coming out of the U.S. Thursday that will be very closely scrutinized as U.S. economic recession worries have resurfaced.

A World Trade Organization trade-dispute decision in favor of the U.S. over the European Union on aircraft has rattled European markets, as the U.S. then announced late Wednesday it will levy new import tariffs on EU products coming into the U.S.

In another sign of very low and even worrisomely low inflation in most of the world’s major economies, the Euro zone today reported its August producer price index down 0.5% from July and down 0.8%, year-on-year.

Traders are also awaiting Friday’s morning’s employment situation report for September from the U.S. Labor Department. Friday’s key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to be up 145,000 in September.

The U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading. The USDX hit a contract and two-year high earlier this week. Look for the greenback to continue to appreciate for at least the near term. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower and trading around $52.50 a barrel. Oil prices are in a steep slide from the spike high scored in September.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the U.S. services PMI, the global services PMI, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, and the non-ISM manufacturing report on business.

–Jim

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Wednesday, October 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stocks were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. China markets are closed this week for a holiday.

Risk aversion is back in the world marketplace at mid-week, as dour manufacturing reports from the U.S. and Europe on Tuesday have spooked traders and investors. Manufacturing activity in the U.S. slowed to a 10-year low in September, according to the Institute of Supply Management.

The U.S.-China trade war is mostly to blame for the slowdown in global economic and trade growth, many agree. The rhetoric between both sides has been and continues to be upbeat one day and downbeat the next—leaving traders and investors perplexed.

Violence in Hong Kong has escalated this week, with the national holiday in China. A protester was shot by police and is in critical condition, reports said. This is also adding some anxiety to the marketplace.

Traders are still monitoring world government bond markets following a surprisingly very poor pubic acceptance of the latest bond offering from the Japanese government. However, at mid-week U.S. Treasury bonds have recovered amid ideas of an easier monetary policy coming from the Federal Reserve, following the weak manufacturing data reported on Tuesday.

On tap today in the U.S. today is the ADP national employment report, which is a precursor to Friday’s more important employment situation report for September from the U.S. Labor Department. Today’s ADP jobs growth number is expected up 125,000. Friday’s key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to be up 145,000 in September.

The U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading. The USDX hit a contract and two-year high on Tuesday. Look for the greenback to continue to appreciate for at least the near term. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and trading around $53.80 a barrel.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ISM New York report on business, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report. Federal Reserve officials are also slated to give speeches today.

–Jim

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The Nymex crude oil futures market has backed way down from the spike high seen in September, including negating an uptrend line. The oil market bulls have quickly faded, suggested the spike high in September was a near-term market top. Look for sideways-at-best trading in crude oil futures in the near term–barring a major flare-up in geopolitics in the Middle East, which cannot be ruled out. Stay tuned!–Jim