Daily Morning Report

Thursday, August 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

Risk appetite suddenly up-ticked overnight when news reports hit the wires that Chinese government officials (from the Commerce Ministry) have indicated they will not retaliate for the latest round of U.S. tariffs imposed on imports from China and said that the two countries remain in communication on the trade dispute matter. This news coming from China may or may not corroborate President Trump’s assertion earlier this week that a high-level Chinese trade official contacted the U.S. to restart trade negotiations.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil prices up and trading around $56.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly firmer.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the second estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product, and pending home sales.

–Jim

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Wednesday, August 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

There were no major news developments overnight to move markets. Still, risk appetite is less robust at mid-week as there are storm clouds on the marketplace horizon, including the lingering U.S.-China trade war, Brexit concerns, and weakening global economic growth.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil prices up and trading around $55.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is firmer.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

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The Nymex crude oil futures market has been trending lower in choppy fashion for four months. Bears have the near-term technical advantage and that means the path of least resistance will remain sideways to lower in the near term. It will take a move in prices above solid chart resistance at $57.50 to break the price downtrend and give the bulls some upside momentum. Stay tuned!–Jim

Tuesday, August 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward near-steady openings when the New York day session begins. While there is still a bit more trader and investor optimism regarding a U.S.-China trade agreement being reached down the road, it appears President Trump’s comments Monday at the G-7 meeting in France were probably too optimistic, following rhetoric coming out of China.

While traders and investors are may not quite as anxious so far this trading week, there are still elements lingering that could quickly induce a headache for the world marketplace, including civil unrest in Hong Kong, and instability in the Persian Gulf and in Venezuela. The months of September and October are right around the corner, which have been problematic for the stock market in the past. And this year the U.K. is scheduled to leave the European Union (Brexit) in October—so far without a planned departure.

In overnight news, another report showed weakening world economic growth, as Germany’s second-quarter gross domestic product was down 0.1%. Germany auctioned is two-year note for a yield of minus 0.89% today, which is a record low.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil prices up and trading around $54.25 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the quarterly and monthly house price indexes, the S&P-Core-Logic house price index, the Richmond Fed business survey, and the consumer confidence index.

–Jim

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Monday, August 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

The unexpected twists and turns in the U.S.-China trade war continue, as President Trump early Monday morning said Chinese trade officials called U.S. trade officials Sunday evening to restart discussions. Trump said China “wants to make a deal” and “that’s a great thing.” Markets in Asia and European were under selling pressure early on, until the Trump news hit the news wires and turned the stock markets that were still open around. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Chinese officials appeared a bit murky on the matter of the phone call, however. The surprise news Monday comes after Trump on Friday unleashed a barrage of negative tweets on China, including “demanding” that U.S. businesses leave there.

The weekend G-7 summit in Paris produced nothing major that the marketplace deemed as price-sensitive. Trump had a chance to meet with Iran’s foreign minister who showed up unexpectedly, but declined to do so.

Civil unrest in Hong Kong escalated over the weekend, including clashes between police and protestors. The world marketplace continues to closely monitor the situation.

In other overnight news, the closely watched German Ifo business conditions index in August fell to 94.3 versus expectations of a reading of 95.1.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $54.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index, durable goods orders and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

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The U.S. dollar index is a basket of six major world currencies rolled into on composite price index. It’s a gauge of the overall health of the U.S. currency. See on the daily bar chart that the USDX is in an uptrend and is close to reaching a new high for the year. The greenback bulls are in firm technical command as summertime is winding down, heading into what can be more turbulent trading months of September and October. Stay tuned!–Jim