Daily Morning Report

Monday, September 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The German elections held over the weekend saw Chancellor Angela Merkel secure a fourth term. However, voters did make a shift to the right, which could make it more difficult for Merkel to form a coalition. The elections had little impact on world markets. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

Gold prices are trading near unchanged. Silver prices are also trading near steady. The firmer U.S. dollar index Monday is a daily bearish element working against the precious metals markets.

Focus this week is on central bankers speeches. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi speaks Monday and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen delivers a speech Tuesday. Other Federal Reserve officials will also give speeches throughout the week.

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Friday, September 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World equity markets were mostly weaker overnight as risk aversion has quickly returned to the marketplace ahead of the weekend. North Korea has threatened to detonate a huge hydrogen bomb over the Pacific Ocean. “Rocketman” Kim Jong Un has vowed to use “hard-line countermeasures” in response to President Trump’s threat earlier this week to destroy North Korea. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

Gold prices are showing modest gains on renewed safe-haven demand, some bargain hunting from recent losses, and on short covering in the futures market. Silver prices are also slightly up, following gold.

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The Nymex crude oil futures market has just hit a four-month high amid the recent rally. The bulls have gained the near-term technical advantage. However, with crude prices now above $50.00 a barrel, continuing the fledging uptrend will become much more difficult. The next upside target for the oil market bulls is the May high of $52.62. Stay tuned!–Jim

Thursday, September 21–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly higher overnight, in the wake of an upbeat assessment of the U.S. economy from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the U.S. day session begins. U.S. stock indexes are near their recent record highs.

Gold prices are solidly lower and have hit a three-week low following the hawkish Fed meeting this week and the “risk-on” trader and investor attitudes at present.

World markets are still digesting the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that ended Wednesday with Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s press conference. The Fed did not raise interest rates but did announce that in October it will start reducing its big balance sheet of U.S. securities. The aforementioned moves were not surprising. What is surprising was the Fed’s upbeat tone on the U.S. economy despite two major hurricanes that just hit the U.S. mainland. A December interest rate hike remains on the table and the Fed also wants to raise interest rates three times in 2018.

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Wednesday, September 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed in subdued trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

Gold prices are higher in pre-U.S.-session trading, on bargain hunting, short covering and some safe-haven demand following a fiery speech by U.S. President Trump at the U.N. on Tuesday. Trump threatened to completely destroy North Korea.

Markets have paused ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. No interest rate changes are expected from the FOMC at this meeting. However, it is expected the Fed will announce it is drawing down its big balance sheet of securities. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a press conference after the FOMC meeting ends. Also, the Federal Reserve will release new economic projections. The inflation projections will be examined very closely.

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The gold market has lost around $50 an ounce from the early-September high, as risk appetite has returned to the marketplace. That’s bearish for safe-haven gold. See on the daily bar chart that December gold futures see an uptrend line that is being challenged. A drop below key chart support at $1,300.00 would give the bears more technical momentum to then suggest that a near-term market top is in place. Stay tuned!–Jim