Markets Quiet Ahead of U.S. Jobs Report

Friday, November 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were little changed overnight, ahead of the U.S. employment report for October that is released at 8:30 a.m. EDT. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to come in at up 315,000. Look for more active trading in many markets following the jobs report release—especially if the non-farm number is a big miss. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

There were no major news developments overnight to move the markets.

The key “outside markets” on Friday morning find the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. The greenback bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are firmer and trading just below $55.00 a barrel.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the international trade report, the U.S. services PMI, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, and the ISM non-manufacturing report on business.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a contract and record high on Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and there are no strong, early technical clues that a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 2,585.50 and then at 2,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at this week’s low of 2,562.25 and then at 2,550.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices Wednesday hit a contract and record high. Bulls have the solid technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 6,284.50 and then at 6,300.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at this week’s low of 6,192.50 and then at 6,150.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the bulls have had a good week. A bullish weekly high close today would suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 153 22/32 and then at 154 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 153 even and then at Thursday’s low of 152 22/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage but the bulls have had the better week. A bullish weekly high close today would be one clue that a market bottom is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 125.08.5 and then at 125.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Thursday’s low of 124.28.5 and then at this week’s low of 124.23.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The greenback bulls are still working on a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 94.835 and then at last week’s high of 95.060. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 94.305 and then at 94.100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are near this week’s six-month high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a near-term price uptrend being in place. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of 55.22 and then at $56.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $54.00 and then at this week’s low of $53.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures markets were narrowly mixed overnight. Harvest in the U.S. Corn Belt is way past the half-way point. Focus has switched to world supply and demand fundamentals. Recent price action in the grains still hints at market bottoms in place.