Wednesday, August 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.
U.S.-Turkey relations have further deteriorated as Turkey has slapped economic sanctions on the U.S. The Turkish lira has stabilized at mid-week, but traders and investors worldwide are still jittery that a secondary currency contagion could still develop as the U.S. dollar continues to appreciate against most world currencies.
The economic highlight of the day for the U.S. is retail sales data for July, which is expected to come in at up just 0.1%.
The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index higher and hitting a 14-month high today. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading just above $66.00 a barrel. Oil prices are near this week’s six-week low and are trending lower.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilization, preliminary productivity and costs, the Empire State manufacturing survey, manufacturing and trade inventories, the NAHB housing market index, Treasury international capital data, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 2,843.75 and then at 2,852.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at this week’s low of 2,820.00 and then at 2,800.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are lower in early trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 7,450.00 and then at this week’s high of 7,479.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 7,410.00 and then at this week’s low of 7,378.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 144 25/32 and then at 145 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 143 27/32 and then at 143 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 120.15.5 and then at 120.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 120.00.0 and then at 119.28.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is firmer and hit a 14-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 97.000 and then at 97.250. Shorter-term support is seen at 96.500 and then at this week’s low of 96.020. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading and are near this week’s six-week low. Bulls are fading and prices are trending lower. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $67.00 and then at $67.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $65.71 and then at $65.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were lower overnight. Recent strong selling pressure has the bears back in control of corn and soybeans, and the wheat market bulls have faded, too. The strong U.S. dollar and last week’s bearish USDA report continue to pressure grain prices.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
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