Friday, August 11–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
On tap today is the U.S. producer price index for July, seen coming in at up 0.2% from June and compares to a 0.1% rise in the June report.
Thursday’s July consumer price index report was slightly tamer than expected. The report solidified notions the Federal Reserve will stand pat on raising interest rates at its September FOMC meeting. There is a growing camp of Fed watchers that believes the U.S. economy has turned the corner on tamping down problematic inflation faster than many expected and that it may be that no further interest rate increases are necessary. Others say it’s too soon to tell.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,544.75 and then at 4,560.75. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,473.50 and then at 4,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,497.75 and then at 15,610.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the July low of 15,063.25 and then at 15,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 122 even and then at this week’s high of 123 5/32. Shorter-term support lies at 121 even and then at 120 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 111.00.0 and then at 111.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 110.16.0 and then at 110.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1050 and then at this week’s high of 1.1085. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0935 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $84.00 and then at this week’s high of $84.89. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $82.00 and then at $81.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Weather in the Midwest leans a little friendlier for corn and soybean prices. Warmer temps and less precip are in the forecast for the Corn Belt for most of the next 10 days. The data point of the week for the grain markets is Friday morning’s USDA monthly supply and demand report. Look for active grain trading in the immediate aftermath of that report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
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