Friday, December 15–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
In overnight news, China got some more downbeat economic data Friday. Investment and consumer spending in November increased less than expected. New home sales fell at a faster pace in November, too. After the disappointing economic data, China’s central bank kept its key policy rates unchanged, but did pump 800 billion yuan ($112 billion) of liquidity into the banking system. That was the biggest-ever central bank infusion of one-year loans to banks.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $71.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.92%.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the Empire State manufacturing survey, industrial production and capacity utilization, the U.S. flash manufacturing and services purchasing managers indexes (PMI).
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and near this week’s contract high and yearly high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,791.25 and then at 4,825.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 4,746.25 and then at 4,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up and near this week’s contract high and high for the year in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 16,885.00 and then at 17,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 16,628.00 and then at 16,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer and near this week’s four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 123 30/32 and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 123 1/32 and then at 122 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are a bit higher and not far below this week’s four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 112.28.0 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 112.08.0 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from this week’s good gains. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1053 and then at the November high of 1.1070. Shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 1.0919 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $72.46 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at this week’s low of $67.71. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were steady to narrowly mixed overnight. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rallies in wheat markets still suggest price bottoms are in place. Technicals are slightly bearish for soybeans and bearish for meal as those markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Very interesting topic, thanks for putting up.