Friday, April 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Amazon reported disappointing earnings results late Thursday. Apple reported good earnings but said Covid in China will likely constrain the company’s earnings in the current quarter.
Bloomberg today reported: “Non-dollar currencies, which came in for a hammering in recent days, got a respite on Friday. China’s Politburo vowed to boost stimulus measures, which revived sentiment toward the yuan and other currencies. The Politburo said it would ‘strengthen macro adjustments, strive to achieve full-year economic and social development goals, and keep the economy running within a reasonable range.’”
In other overnight news, the Eurozone got another piece of hot inflation data, as its consumer price index for April was up 7.5%, year-on-year. That was right in line with market expectations.
Gold prices are sharply up to end the trading week, on safe-haven demand as Europe grapples with its energy dependency on Russia, and Russia is putting the squeeze on supplying natural gas and oil to European countries.
The key outside markets today sees Nymex crude oil futures prices firmer and trading around $106.00 a barrel. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 2.844%.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, the employment cost index, the Chicago ISM business survey, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,303.50 and then at 4,350.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 4,182.50 and then at this week’s low of 4,136.75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,420.50 and then at this week’s high of 13,583.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,801.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in solid technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen 142 even and then at this week’s high of 143 9/32. Shorter-term support lies at Thursday’s low of 140 12/32 and then at this week’s low of 139 28/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119.24.0 and then at 120.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 119.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 118.26.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a contract and five-year low on Thursday. Bears still have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0676 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of 1.0490 and then at 1.0450. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have had a good week and prices are poised to close at a technically bullish weekly high close on Friday. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $107.50 and then at the April high of $109.20. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $104.54 and then at $102.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures prices were firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Not much new this week. Corn and soybean bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls have the slight near-term chart advantage. Planting delays in the U.S. Corn Belt are in focus as much of that region remains cool and wet. Rising raw commodity price inflation continues to be a major underlying bullish element for the grains.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff