Tuesday, April 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins, on some routine chart consolidation from recent gains that put the indexes at record highs. Trader and investor attitudes remain generally upbeat, which means the stock market is viewed as the best game in town.
The U.S. economic highlight of the day will be the consumer price index report for March, expected to come in at up 0.5% from February and up 2.5%, year-on-year. The CPI report follows last week’s producer price index report that came in much-hotter-than-expected, which added fuel to notions that inflation is rising faster than many had reckoned.
In overnight news, China got some more economic data that suggested the world’s second-largest economy continues to surge ahead. China’s March exports were up 30.6%, year-on-year, while its imports rose 38.1%.
The price of Bitcoin rose to a new record Tuesday, above $63,000, as it appears Wall Street is embracing the crypto currency world, after dragging its feet on the matter for years. The “Coinbase” exchange is expected to start trading on the Nasdaq this week.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $60.30 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.687%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the NFIB small business index, weekly chain store sales, the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, and real earnings. Several Federal Reserve officials are also slated to speak today.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and not far below the overnight contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight record high of 4,127.00 and then at 4,150.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at last Friday’s low of 4,081.00 and then at 4,050.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 13,841.75 and then at the record high of 13,888.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last Friday’s low of 13,648.25 and then at 13,500.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent sideways price action at lower levels may be “basing” that puts in a market bottom. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 157 4/32 and then at 157 8/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 155 25/32 and then at last week’s low of 155 6/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 131.28.5 and then at last week’s high of 132.03.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.12.0 and then at 131.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1943 and then at 1.1975. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.1886 and then at 1.1850. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has been choppy and sideways. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullishl early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of $60.77 and then at $61.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $59.64 and then at $59.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures are mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls are in firm technical control but trading has turned sideways and choppy at higher levels. Wheat bulls have bounced back a bit and wheat will remain a follower. Weather in the U.S. midsection will be market-sensitive in the coming weeks as corn planters start to roll.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff