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Daily Morning Report

Stock markets rebound Tuesday

May 18, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, May 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Global investor and trader risk appetite has improved Tuesday. For the moment at least, the marketplace is not paying much attention to the escalating fighting between Israel and Hamas that is the fiercest since 2014.

In overnight news, first-quarter Euro zone gross domestic product fell 0.6% from the fourth quarter of last year and was down 1.8%, year-on-year. Those numbers were in line with market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower and hitting a nearly three-month low. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are higher, hit a two-month high overnight, and are trading around $66.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.647%. The German 10-year bund yield is trading at -0.109% and the U.K. 10-year gilt yield is 0.881%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, new residential construction and the ISM semiannual business economic forecast.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a near-term price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated to still suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,179.50 and then at 4,200.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 4,136.50 and then at 4,105.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The near-term price uptrend on the daily chart was negated last week to suggest a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 13,448.50 and then at 13,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,290.00 and then at Monday’s low of 13,182.75. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 157 14/32 and then at 158 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 156 3/32 and then at the May low of 155 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 132.21.5 and then at 132.28.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.07.5 and then at 132.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are solidly higher and hit a nearly three-month high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2230 and then at the February high of 1.2271. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2159 and then at Monday’s low of 1.2133. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and hit a two-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the March high of $67.29 and then at $68.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $66.00 and then at $65.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are solidly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading, on rebounds from recent selling pressure. The corn and soybean markets are still in solid price uptrends on the daily and the longer-term charts. Wheat has seen its near-term price uptrends soundly negated, to suggest that market has topped out. Trading the rest of this week will be extra important and could set the tone for price action in the grains into late June.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Grain market bulls in some trouble now

May 17, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

The grain futures markets are now wobbly after a strong bull market run pushed prices to contract and multi-year highs just recently. Corn prices have led the down-move but it’s the wheat markets that have suffered the most chart damage. At the very least the grain market bulls are tired and need a rest–meaning sideways trading in the near term. However, if there is more solid selling pressure in the grain markets this week, major market tops could be in place. It does appear at this time the grain markets will need a fresh fundamental spark to reignite bull market runs, and that spark would most likely need to be a significant weather market scare in the U.S. Corn Belt this summer. Remember that more years than not there is some degree of a spring/summertime weather scare in the grains. Stay tuned! Jim

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Stock markets slip to start trading week

May 17, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, May 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The discussion in the marketplace continues to be on whether inflationary pressures will grow to levels that create economic distress down the road. The line coming from the Federal Reserve at present is that rising inflation is only a “transitory” matter. However, other economists and market analysts say inflation cannot help but become problematic in the coming months and point to strong evidence in place already, including generally rising raw commodity prices.

In overnight news, China reported more generally strong economic data Monday, as industrial output in April was up 9.8%, year-on-year, while retail sales were up 17.7% in the period. The retail sales figure was less than forecast. These numbers coming out of the world’s second-largest economy certainly land in the higher-inflation camp.

Gold prices rose to a three-month high overnight as reports said money flows are moving back into the SPDR Gold Trust exchange traded fund—possibly due in part to the crypto currencies become more wobbly recently.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $65.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.625%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Empire State manufacturing survey, the NAHB housing market index, and Treasury international capital data.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a near-term price uptrend on the daily chart was negated last week to still suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,178.75 and then at 4,200.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,125.00 and then at last Friday’s low of 4,105.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The near-term price uptrend on the daily chart was negated last week to suggest a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,448.50 and then at 13,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,250.00 and then at 13,200.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading today, on short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 157 14/32 and then at 158 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 156 24/32 and then at last Friday’s low of 156 3/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.21.5 and then at 132.28.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.12.0 and then at 132.06.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the May high of 1.2189 and then at 1.2200. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2133 and then at 1.2100. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the May high of $66.76 and then at the March high of $67.29. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $65.00 and then at $64.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. The bulls may be running out of gas. However, the corn and soybean markets are still in solid price uptrends on the daily and the longer-term charts. Wheat has seen its near-term price uptrends soundly negated, to suggest that market has topped out. And if wheat has put in a market top, I can’t see corn and soybeans continuing to make new highs. Thus, keep an extra close eye on the wheat market. It could be the downside leader for the near term. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Stock market bulls work on recovery late this week

May 14, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, May 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The equities bulls are still on the ropes following this week’s selling pressure that negated near-term price uptrends on the daily bar charts for the U.S. stock indexes, which is a technical clue the indexes have put in price tops. Inflation worries are still on the minds of many traders and investors and that makes them more tentative about holding paper assets. Ironically, Thursday’s global trading saw many raw commodity markets sell off, some sharply, including grains, crude oil, iron ore, copper and others.

The U.S. economic data point of the day is the retail sales report for April, seen up 0.8% after the mammoth gain if 9.8% in the March report.

The marketplace is still keeping an eye on the intensifying military confrontation in the Middle East, as Israel and Hamas are exchanging heavy artillery and rocket barrages.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $64.40 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.654%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, manufacturing and trade inventories, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on a continued rebound from this week’s sell off. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, the near-term price uptrend on the daily chart has been at least temporarily negated to suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,150.50 and then at 4,175.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,105.25 and then at 4,075.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on a bounce from this week’s selling pressure. The near-term price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated to suggest a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,300.00 and then at 13,75.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,071.00 and then at 13,000.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading today, on short covering. Bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 157 even and then at 157 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 156 3/32 and then at this week’s low of 155 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.15.5 and then at 132.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.06.0 and then at 132.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2136 and then at Wednesday’s high of 1.2160. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.2100 and then at this week’s low of 1.2058. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $65.00 and then at Thursday’s high of $65.81. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $63.09 and then at the May low of $62.91. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are solidly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading, on corrective bounces after big losses Thursday. The bulls may be running out of gas. However, the corn and soybean markets are still in solid price uptrends on the daily and the longer-term charts. Wheat has seen its near-term price uptrends soundly negated, to suggest that market has topped out. And if wheat has put in a market top, I can’t see corn and soybeans continuing to make new highs. Thus, keep an extra close eye on the wheat market. It could be the downside leader for the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

U.S. stock indexes wobbling

May 13, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

The equities bulls are on the ropes following this week’s strong selling pressure that has negated near-term price uptrends on the daily bar charts for the U.S. stock indexes, which is a technical clue the indexes have put in price tops. Traders and investors are pondering the old trading adage, “Sell in May and go away.” A hot U.S. consumer price index report on Wednesday has spooked the marketplace and further stoked notions that price inflation could get out of control down the road. Stay tuned! Jim

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Equities: Sell in May and go away?

May 13, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, May 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were solidly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins, on follow-through selling after big losses Wednesday. The equities bulls are on the ropes late this week following this week’s strong selling pressure that has negated near-term price uptrends on the daily bar charts for the U.S. stock indexes, which is a technical clue the indexes have put in price tops. Traders and investors are pondering the old trading adage, “Sell in May and go away.” A hot U.S. consumer price index report on Wednesday has spooked the marketplace and further stoked notions that price inflation could get out of control down the road.

In overnight news, Bitcoin prices plunged after Elon Musk said his company, Tesla, now will not accept crypto-currency for purchases because of their mining’s effect on climate. Dogecoin has also retreated from an all-time high after Musk appeared on “Saturday Night Live” and agreed that crypto was a “hustle.”

The marketplace is still keeping an eye on the flare-up in the Middle East, as Israel and Hamas have ratcheted up their missile strikes against each other. The military action between the two is the most intense since 2014.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index up on more of a corrective bounce after prices Tuesday hit a 2.5-month low. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower and trading around $64.00 a barrel. The U.S. Colonial pipeline system that had been shut down due to a cyberattack is reopening. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is on the rise late this week and is presently fetching around 1.69%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and the producer price index for April, seen up 0.3% from March.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading on more profit taking after hitting a record high Monday. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, the near-term price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated to suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,077.25 and then at 4,100.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,029.25 and then at 4,000.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hit a six-week low in early U.S. trading. The near-term price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated to suggest a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,069.25 and then at 13,200.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,915.00 and then at 12,800.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 156 2/32 and then at 156 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 155 14/32 and then at 155 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and hit a two-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.03.0 and then at 132.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 131.24.0 and then at 131.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2113 and then at Wednesday’s high of 1.2160. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2058 and then at 1.2000. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $65.00 and then at the overnight high of $65.81. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $63.68 and then at the May low of $62.91. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed but mostly lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. The bulls may be running out of gas. However, the markets are still in price uptrends on the daily and the longer-term charts. On tap today is the weekly USDA supply export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

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Disclaimer

There is a risk of financial loss in futures and options trading. Futures trading is neither easy nor an easy way to make money. It takes hard work to have success. Please use sound money management when trading futures. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing on this website is intended to be a trading recommendation to buy or sell futures or options. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Readers are solely responsible for how they use the information on this website.

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