Daily Morning Report

Friday, May 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The equities bulls are still on the ropes following this week’s selling pressure that negated near-term price uptrends on the daily bar charts for the U.S. stock indexes, which is a technical clue the indexes have put in price tops. Inflation worries are still on the minds of many traders and investors and that makes them more tentative about holding paper assets. Ironically, Thursday’s global trading saw many raw commodity markets sell off, some sharply, including grains, crude oil, iron ore, copper and others.

The U.S. economic data point of the day is the retail sales report for April, seen up 0.8% after the mammoth gain if 9.8% in the March report.

The marketplace is still keeping an eye on the intensifying military confrontation in the Middle East, as Israel and Hamas are exchanging heavy artillery and rocket barrages.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $64.40 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.654%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, manufacturing and trade inventories, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on a continued rebound from this week’s sell off. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, the near-term price uptrend on the daily chart has been at least temporarily negated to suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,150.50 and then at 4,175.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,105.25 and then at 4,075.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on a bounce from this week’s selling pressure. The near-term price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated to suggest a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,300.00 and then at 13,75.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,071.00 and then at 13,000.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading today, on short covering. Bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 157 even and then at 157 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 156 3/32 and then at this week’s low of 155 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.15.5 and then at 132.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.06.0 and then at 132.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2136 and then at Wednesday’s high of 1.2160. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.2100 and then at this week’s low of 1.2058. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $65.00 and then at Thursday’s high of $65.81. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $63.09 and then at the May low of $62.91. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are solidly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading, on corrective bounces after big losses Thursday. The bulls may be running out of gas. However, the corn and soybean markets are still in solid price uptrends on the daily and the longer-term charts. Wheat has seen its near-term price uptrends soundly negated, to suggest that market has topped out. And if wheat has put in a market top, I can’t see corn and soybeans continuing to make new highs. Thus, keep an extra close eye on the wheat market. It could be the downside leader for the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, May 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were solidly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins, on follow-through selling after big losses Wednesday. The equities bulls are on the ropes late this week following this week’s strong selling pressure that has negated near-term price uptrends on the daily bar charts for the U.S. stock indexes, which is a technical clue the indexes have put in price tops. Traders and investors are pondering the old trading adage, “Sell in May and go away.” A hot U.S. consumer price index report on Wednesday has spooked the marketplace and further stoked notions that price inflation could get out of control down the road.

In overnight news, Bitcoin prices plunged after Elon Musk said his company, Tesla, now will not accept crypto-currency for purchases because of their mining’s effect on climate. Dogecoin has also retreated from an all-time high after Musk appeared on “Saturday Night Live” and agreed that crypto was a “hustle.”

The marketplace is still keeping an eye on the flare-up in the Middle East, as Israel and Hamas have ratcheted up their missile strikes against each other. The military action between the two is the most intense since 2014.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index up on more of a corrective bounce after prices Tuesday hit a 2.5-month low. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower and trading around $64.00 a barrel. The U.S. Colonial pipeline system that had been shut down due to a cyberattack is reopening. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is on the rise late this week and is presently fetching around 1.69%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and the producer price index for April, seen up 0.3% from March.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading on more profit taking after hitting a record high Monday. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, the near-term price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated to suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,077.25 and then at 4,100.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,029.25 and then at 4,000.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hit a six-week low in early U.S. trading. The near-term price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated to suggest a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,069.25 and then at 13,200.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,915.00 and then at 12,800.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 156 2/32 and then at 156 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 155 14/32 and then at 155 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and hit a two-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.03.0 and then at 132.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 131.24.0 and then at 131.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2113 and then at Wednesday’s high of 1.2160. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2058 and then at 1.2000. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $65.00 and then at the overnight high of $65.81. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $63.68 and then at the May low of $62.91. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed but mostly lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. The bulls may be running out of gas. However, the markets are still in price uptrends on the daily and the longer-term charts. On tap today is the weekly USDA supply export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, May 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Some market analysts are blaming worries about problematic inflation for this week’s pullback in stock markets. The U.S. consumer price index is out on Wednesday morning and will be closely scrutinized. Forecasts call for April CPI to be up 0.2% from March and up 3.6%, year-on-year. The “reflation trade” is still on the front burner of marketplace chatter.

In overnight news, the European Union forecast its annual gross domestic product growth at 4.3% in 2021, up from its last estimate of 3.8% growth. The EU sees annual inflation in 2021 at 1.7%, and at 1.3% in 2022. These low inflation numbers point to lame price rises over the next two years, which contradict some of the recent indications that price inflation is heating up much more rapidly.

The marketplace is keeping a wary eye on the flare-up in the Middle East, as Israel and Hamas are stepping up their missile strikes against each other. The military action between the two is the most intense since 2014.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer on a corrective bounce after prices Tuesday hit a 2.5-month low. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $66.00 a barrel. The U.S. Colonial pipeline system that has been shut down due to a cyberattack is set to reopen temporarily. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.611%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the CPI, real earnings, the monthly Treasury budget statement and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading on more profit taking after hitting a record high Monday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. There are no strong, early clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,150.50 and then at Tuesday’s high of 4,185.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,103.75 and then at 4,080.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,351.75 and then at 13,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,184.75 and then at this week’s low of 13,065.25. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 158 even and then at this week’s high of 158 12/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 156 26/32 and then at 156 6/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 132.23.5 and then at this week’s high of 132.30.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.12.5 and then at 132.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.2189 and then at 1.2200. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2122 and then at 1.2100. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the May high of $66.76 and then at the March high of $67.29. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $64.97 and then at $64.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Prices Monday saw heavy profit taking but prices bounced right back Tuesday—a sign the markets are still in strong bullish modes amid price uptrends still in place on the daily and the longer-term charts. On tap today is the monthly USDA supply and demand report, which could make for higher volatility after the 12:00 noon EDT report’s release.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, May 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins, led by the technology sector. Some so far just routine profit-taking pressure is seen in the indexes that have been trending higher. Some market analysts are blaming worries about problematic inflation for the pullback in stock markets this week. The U.S. consumer price index is out on Wednesday morning and will be closely scrutinized. Forecasts call for April CPI to be up 0.2% from March and up 3.6%, year-on-year.

While the major economies of the West have not yet been reporting inflation numbers that are concerning, China has just reported its producer prices climbed at the fastest pace in 3.5 years in April, reflecting a big rise in input costs. Producer prices rose 6.8%, year-on-year in April, up from 4.4% in March. China’s consumer price index increased 0.9% year-on-year in April, with demand continuing to improve compared to a 0.4% reading recorded in March. Meantime, China’s central bank raised the yuan currency fix against the U.S. dollar to 6.4254, giving some relief to importers of commodities. Around 100 steel mills in China have raised their prices, reflecting strong demand and rising iron ore prices. The rise in steel prices may threaten a range of downstream industries.

In other news, the closely watched German ZEW economic expectations index for May came in at 84.4 versus 70.7 in April and forecasts for a reading of 71.0.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker and trading not far above Monday’s 2.5-month low. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $64.30 a barrel. The U.S. Colonial pipeline system that has been shut down due to a cyberattack is set to reopen temporarily. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.606%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, and the NFIB small business index. Some Federal Reserve officials are speaking today.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading on profit taking after hitting a record high Monday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. There are no strong, early clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,185.50 and then at 4,200.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the May low of 4,120.50 and then at 4,100.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hit a six-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,344.50 and then at 13,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,140.00 and then at 13,000.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 158 12/32 and then at 159 1/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 157 2/32 and then at 156 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 132.30.5 and then at 133.06.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.14.5 and then at 132.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.2187 and then at 1.2200. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2131 and then at 1.2100. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $65.02 and then at this week’s high of $65.75. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $63.95 and then at last week’s low of $62.91. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mostly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Prices Monday saw heavy profit taking after recent good gains. The grain market bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends still in place on the daily and the longer-term charts. It could be that the still-bullish supply and demand fundamentals in the grains are close to being fully factored into futures market prices. Remember that big bull markets in grain need to be fed fresh fundamental news fairly often.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff