Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, May 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Some market analysts are blaming worries about problematic inflation for this week’s pullback in stock markets. The U.S. consumer price index is out on Wednesday morning and will be closely scrutinized. Forecasts call for April CPI to be up 0.2% from March and up 3.6%, year-on-year. The “reflation trade” is still on the front burner of marketplace chatter.

In overnight news, the European Union forecast its annual gross domestic product growth at 4.3% in 2021, up from its last estimate of 3.8% growth. The EU sees annual inflation in 2021 at 1.7%, and at 1.3% in 2022. These low inflation numbers point to lame price rises over the next two years, which contradict some of the recent indications that price inflation is heating up much more rapidly.

The marketplace is keeping a wary eye on the flare-up in the Middle East, as Israel and Hamas are stepping up their missile strikes against each other. The military action between the two is the most intense since 2014.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer on a corrective bounce after prices Tuesday hit a 2.5-month low. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $66.00 a barrel. The U.S. Colonial pipeline system that has been shut down due to a cyberattack is set to reopen temporarily. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.611%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the CPI, real earnings, the monthly Treasury budget statement and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading on more profit taking after hitting a record high Monday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. There are no strong, early clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,150.50 and then at Tuesday’s high of 4,185.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,103.75 and then at 4,080.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,351.75 and then at 13,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,184.75 and then at this week’s low of 13,065.25. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 158 even and then at this week’s high of 158 12/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 156 26/32 and then at 156 6/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 132.23.5 and then at this week’s high of 132.30.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.12.5 and then at 132.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.2189 and then at 1.2200. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2122 and then at 1.2100. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the May high of $66.76 and then at the March high of $67.29. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $64.97 and then at $64.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Prices Monday saw heavy profit taking but prices bounced right back Tuesday—a sign the markets are still in strong bullish modes amid price uptrends still in place on the daily and the longer-term charts. On tap today is the monthly USDA supply and demand report, which could make for higher volatility after the 12:00 noon EDT report’s release.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, May 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins, led by the technology sector. Some so far just routine profit-taking pressure is seen in the indexes that have been trending higher. Some market analysts are blaming worries about problematic inflation for the pullback in stock markets this week. The U.S. consumer price index is out on Wednesday morning and will be closely scrutinized. Forecasts call for April CPI to be up 0.2% from March and up 3.6%, year-on-year.

While the major economies of the West have not yet been reporting inflation numbers that are concerning, China has just reported its producer prices climbed at the fastest pace in 3.5 years in April, reflecting a big rise in input costs. Producer prices rose 6.8%, year-on-year in April, up from 4.4% in March. China’s consumer price index increased 0.9% year-on-year in April, with demand continuing to improve compared to a 0.4% reading recorded in March. Meantime, China’s central bank raised the yuan currency fix against the U.S. dollar to 6.4254, giving some relief to importers of commodities. Around 100 steel mills in China have raised their prices, reflecting strong demand and rising iron ore prices. The rise in steel prices may threaten a range of downstream industries.

In other news, the closely watched German ZEW economic expectations index for May came in at 84.4 versus 70.7 in April and forecasts for a reading of 71.0.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker and trading not far above Monday’s 2.5-month low. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $64.30 a barrel. The U.S. Colonial pipeline system that has been shut down due to a cyberattack is set to reopen temporarily. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.606%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, and the NFIB small business index. Some Federal Reserve officials are speaking today.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading on profit taking after hitting a record high Monday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. There are no strong, early clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,185.50 and then at 4,200.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the May low of 4,120.50 and then at 4,100.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hit a six-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,344.50 and then at 13,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,140.00 and then at 13,000.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 158 12/32 and then at 159 1/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 157 2/32 and then at 156 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 132.30.5 and then at 133.06.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.14.5 and then at 132.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.2187 and then at 1.2200. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2131 and then at 1.2100. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $65.02 and then at this week’s high of $65.75. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $63.95 and then at last week’s low of $62.91. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mostly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Prices Monday saw heavy profit taking after recent good gains. The grain market bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends still in place on the daily and the longer-term charts. It could be that the still-bullish supply and demand fundamentals in the grains are close to being fully factored into futures market prices. Remember that big bull markets in grain need to be fed fresh fundamental news fairly often.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins and at or near their recent record highs.

The marketplace is still reverberating from the surprising U.S. jobs report for April, released last Friday, that showed a paltry non-farm payrolls rise of 266,000. Forecasts were for a 1 million rise and compares to a rise of 916,000 in March. It was one of the biggest misses from expectations in over 20 years. The U.S. dollar index is reeling from the report and hit a 2.5-month low overnight. The jobs report has at least temporarily thrown cold water on notions the Federal Reserve may be forced to raise interest rates much sooner than many expected and that the U.S. economy could be running in high gear by the end of the year.

Traders and investors are watching developments regarding the cyberattack on the U.S. Colonial Pipeline company that has shut the pipeline system down and halted much of the gasoline distribution on the East Coast.

The other key outside market today sees Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $65.25 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.595%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the employment trends index. Several Federal Reserve officials are slated to speak this week.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hit another record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. There are no strong, early clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight record high of 4,238.25 and then at 4,250.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 4,191.75 and then at 4,160.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,752.00 and then at Friday’s high of 13,818.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 13,588.25 and then at 13,500.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 159 1/32 and then at 159 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 157 16/32 and then at 157 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slight higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 133.00.0 and then at 133.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.18.5 and then at 132.12.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading and hit a 2.5-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2185 and then at 1.2200. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2145 and then at 1.2100. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are modestly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $65.75 and then at $66.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Friday’s low of $63.90 and then at last week’s low of $62.91. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are solidly lower in early U.S. pre-market trading and seeing some profit taking after recent solid gains. The grain market bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends still in place on the daily and the longer-term charts. There are no strong, early chart clues the major bull runs in the grains will end anytime soon. However, they are mature bull markets, and bull markets do not last forever. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, May 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor appetite remains mostly upbeat late this week. However, traders have taken note of comments from Fed Governor Lael Brainard Thursday, who said in a report that rising appetite for risk across a variety of asset markets is stretching valuations and creating peril in the U.S. financial system. “Vulnerabilities associated with elevated risk appetite are rising,”  she said. The combination of stretched valuations with very high levels of corporate indebtedness may prompt a major “re-pricing event,” she said. Some market watchers are already musing about a hawkish Fed stance at the Jackson Hole, Wyoming annual Fed confab in August.

More and more, the “reflation trade” is coming back into vogue. Copper prices overnight hit a record high amid surging demand for construction and building materials. A Dow Jones Newswire headline Friday read, “Higher Steel, Precious Metals Prices Vex Auto Makers in 1Q.”

In overnight news, China reported its April exports were up 32.3%, year-on-year, while its imports rose 43.1% in the period. Both numbers were even better than expected, further underscoring the voracious demand for raw commodities that is only likely to grow even stronger in the coming months.

The key U.S. data point of the week and arguably of the month comes Friday morning with the Labor Department’s Employment Situation Report for April. Non-farm payrolls are seen up 1 million compared to a rise of 916,000 in March. The unemployment rate is seen at 5.8% versus 6.0% in March.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower and trading around $64.65 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.577%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes monthly wholesale trade and consumer credit data.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are modestly higher in early U.S. trading and near the record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. There are no strong, early clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 4,211.00 and then at 4,225.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 4,140.50 and then at this week’s low of 4,120.50. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,700.00 and then at 13,792.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,588.25 and then at 13,500.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 158 23/32 and then at the April high of 159 1/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Thursday’s low of 157 29/32 and then at 157 8/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the April high of 132.24.5 and then at 132.28.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 132.15.0 and then at 132.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2099 and then at 1.2140. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at  1.2050 and then at this week’s low of 1.1995. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Thursday’s high of $65.98 and then at this week’s high of $66.76. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $64.37 and then at this week’s low of $62.91. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading and at or near their contract and multi-year highs. The grain market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily and the longer-term charts. The reflation trade is also fueling the grain market bulls. There are no early chart clues the major bull runs in the grains will end anytime soon.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff