Daily Morning Report

Friday, April 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins on this last day of the month, on some profit taking after the major indexes hit new record highs on Thursday. Also, there is some trader and investor unease as the pandemic is still raging in some countries, including India and Brazil. There was also some downbeat economic data coming out of China Friday, as its manufacturing gauges fell due to computer chip shortages as well as supply chain and shipping logjams.

In other overnight news, Euro zone consumer price inflation for April rose 1.6%, year-on-year, following a 1.3% rise in March. The April number was a bit higher than expected but still not a figure that raises concerns.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher as the greenback is making a late-week rebound. Nymex crude oil prices are lower on profit taking after hitting a six-week high on Thursday and are trading around $63.80 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.645%.  

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, the employment cost index, the Chicago ISM business survey, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on routine profit taking after hitting a contract and record high on Thursday. Bulls still have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. There are no early clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 4,211.00 and then at 4,230.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,163.75 and then at 4,150.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading on some profit taking after hitting a record high Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,948.50 and then at the contract and record high of 14,064.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,818.50 and then at 13,700.50. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and have regained momentum this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 157 24/32 and then at 158 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 156 27/32 and then at this week’s low of 156 6/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have gained momentum this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 132.06.5 and then at 132.12.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.26.0 and then at this week’s low of 131.18.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading, on a routine downside correction after hitting a two-month high on Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.2161 and then at 1.2200. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.2067 and then at 1.20000. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are lower on profit taking after hitting a six-week high on Thursday. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $65.00 and then at this week’s high of $65.47. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $63.00 and then at $62.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading, on some end-of-the-month profit taking after strong gains posted recently. The grain market bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily and the longer-term charts. Stay tuned right here and in my afternoon reports, to get the very early clues on when the price trends in the grains may change.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, April 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and new record highs for the S&P 500 when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is upbeat late this week after Wednesday’s conclusion of the FOMC meeting that saw the U.S. central bank keep its monetary policy very accommodative, and also after President Biden’s Wednesday evening address to Congress, in which he laid out plans for a massive $1.8 trillion economic stimulus program. “In this environment it is very difficult to be bearish,” said one stock market analyst. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday afternoon dismissed the notion of price inflation getting out of control, saying presently rising inflation levels are due to “transitory factors.”

Commodity market watchers may beg to differ with the Fed’s notion that accelerating inflation is just a temporary matter. Several markets this week, including grains, lumber, copper and coffee prices this week hit multi-year highs. Lumber prices have skyrocketed to record highs. The “reflation trade” has yet to significantly boost gold and silver prices, however, as traders are apparently assigning more market weight to those metals’ safe-haven status amid little risk aversion in the marketplace, as opposed to viewing the metals as a hard-asset hedge against inflation.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are higher, hit a six-week high overnight and are trading around $64.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.649%.  

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the first-quarter GDP report, and pending home sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are up in early U.S. trading and hit another contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. There are no early clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 4,225.00 and then at 4,250.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,183.50 and then at this week’s low of 4,163.75. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and close to last week’s record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract and record high of 14,059.50 and then at 14,100.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,952.50 and then at this week’s low of 13,865.50. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and have regained momentum this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 157 20/32 and then at 158 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 156 25/32 and then at 156 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are gaining momentum this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.05.5 and then at 132.10.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 131.23.0 and then at 131.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a two-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2161 and then at 1.2200. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.2100 and then at this week’s low of 1.2067. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are up and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and they are having a good week. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $65.00 and then at $66.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $63.65 and then at $63.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed but mostly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. The grain market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily and the longer-term charts. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

Stay tuned right here and in my afternoon reports, to get the very early clues on when the price trends in the grains may change.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, April 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. It’s a big day for markets Wednesday. The data point of the week is the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chair Powell. While no change in U.S. monetary policy is expected, the marketplace will closely scrutinize the Fed’s inflation outlook and any comments on the future path of monetary policy. Also, President Biden today is set to lay out to a joint session of Congress another big government spending program in order to continue to pry the U.S. economy away from the grip of the pandemic. Biden’s $1.8 trillion “American Families Plan” includes $1 trillion in spending and $800 million in tax cuts and credits for middle- and lower-income American families. The 10-year plan would be part funded by increased taxes and wealthy Americans.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $63.15 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.64%. Bond yields are on the rise again at mid-week. 

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the advance economic indicators report and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and near this week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. There are no early clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 4,192.50 and then at 4,200.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,163.75 and then at 4,150.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract and record high of 14,059.50 and then at 14,100.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,865.50 and then at last week’s low of 13,700.50. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 158 even and then at this week’s high of 158 22/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 156 29/32 and then at 156 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.02.5 and then at 132.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.25.5 and then at 131.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2103 and then at this week’s high of 1.2129. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.2050 and then at 1.2000. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and they are having a good week, so far. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $63.50 and then at $64.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $62.27 and then at $62.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are solidly lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, on profit taking and some chart consolidation after recent very strong gains that pushed prices to multi-year highs. The grain markets had gone nearly “parabolic”—meaning nearly straight up. History suggests such price moves mean market tops are getting closer. The bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, the psychology of the marketplace should be at least a bit worrisome for the bulls. Reason: All of the bullish fundamental news for the grains may now be factored into the futures price structure. Remember that a big bull market in the grains needs to be fed fresh fundamental fodder often. Stay tuned right here and in my afternoon reports, to get the very early clues on when the price trend may change.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, April 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

The main U.S. economic event of the week will be the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chair Powell. While no change in U.S. monetary policy is expected, the marketplace will closely scrutinize the Fed’s inflation outlook and any comments on the future path of monetary policy.

Speaking of inflation, in the raw commodity world let’s take a peek at what’s going on in several markets. Corn futures prices just hit a nearly eight-year high overnight, and are trading above $7.20 a bushel. Soybeans are also at a nearly eight-year and high nearing $16.00 a bushel, and wheat futures are at an eight-year high above $7.50 a bushel. Hog futures are at 6.5-year high. Copper futures are at a 10-year high, Chinese steel futures are at record highs, coffee futures prices hit a nearly four-year high this week, and lumber futures are at record highs. For perspective in lumber, the last bull run in 2018 saw futures prices hit a then-record-high of $659.00 per thousand board feet. This week prices have skyrocketed to $1,420.00 and are still climbing. Many Americans who wanted to build new homes this year are putting it off because lumber prices are too high. Those who think consumer and producer price inflation won’t become problematic down the road my want to ponder this paragraph.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $62.35 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.577%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the U.S. house price index, the S&P-Case-Shiller home price indexes, the Richmond Fed business survey, and the consumer confidence index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit another contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. There are no early clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight record high of 4,192.50 and then at 4,200.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 4,163.75 and then at 4,150.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading and very close to last week’s record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract and record high of 14,059.50 and then at 14,100.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 13,865.50 and then at last week’s low of 13,700.50. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent sideways-to-higher price action at lower levels may be “basing” that puts in a market bottom. Prices are also in an uptrend on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 158 22/32 and then at the April high of 159 1/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 157 24/32 and then at 157 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 132.16.0 and then at 132.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 132.05.0 and then at 132.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.2129 and then at 1.2150. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.2050 and then at 1.2000. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has turned sideways and choppy. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $62.74 and then at $63.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $61.91 and then at $61.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are sharply up in early U.S. pre-market trading, with corn leading gainers and setting a nearly eight-year high. The grain markets are going “parabolic”—meaning nearly straight up. History suggests such price moves mean market tops are getting closer. China demand rumors, recent cold weather in the U.S. midsection and a bullish global supply and demand balance are fueling the grain market bulls. Stay tuned right here and in my afternoon reports, to get the very early clues on when the price trend may change.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff