Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, January 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock market bulls are pausing today after the indexes hit record highs Tuesday.

The marketplace at mid-week is focused on the U.S.-China partial trade agreement that is scheduled to be signed Wednesday in Washington, D.C. China has pledge to buy $200 billion in U.S. goods over the next two years. Specifics on what amounts spent on what products are not likely to be revealed at the signing. There is some concern in the marketplace that the trade deal will not have the U.S. lifting its trade tariffs on China imports until later this year, which has put some mild pressure on global stock markets. However, those who have followed the trade negotiations more closely say the timing of lifting of U.S. tariffs has been known by the Chinese and others for quite some time. The U.S.-China partial trade deal is expected to boost global economic growth in 2020. Still, don’t expect U.S.-China trade and other political differences to just completely disappear after the signing today.

In other overnight news, economic growth in the European Union’s workhorse country, Germany, fell to a six-year low in 2019, at only 0.6% annual expansion. Meantime, Euro zone industrial growth was up 0.2% in November but down 1.5%, year-on-year, it was reported today.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices weaker and trading around $58.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is modestly down early today.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the Empire State manufacturing survey, the producer price index, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

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Tuesday, January 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Corrective pullbacks are in order on this “turnaround Tuesday,” following recent gains that put U.S. stock indexes at record highs overnight. Trader and investor risk appetite remains robust as the geopolitical scene has quieted down markedly the past few days.

The marketplace this week is focused on the U.S.-China partial trade agreement that is scheduled to be signed Wednesday in Washington, D.C. The trade deal is expected to boost global economic growth in 2020. China Tuesday reported its exports grew by just 0.5% in 2019, compared to 10% growth in 2018, as evidence of the trade war with the U.S. damaging China’s economy. China’s imports were reported down 2.8% in 2019 compared to rising 16% in 2018.

In overnight news, the Chinese yuan appreciated to its highest level against the U.S. dollar since last summer, after the U.S. on Monday announced China was no longer on its list of currency manipulators.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices firmer and trading around $58.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is modestly up early today.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the NFIB small business optimism index, the consumer price index, real earnings and the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index.

–Jim

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The gold bulls were strong out of the gate to start 2020 but have quickly faded. Last week’s spike high of $1,613.30 is strong overhead resistance for the bulls to overcome in the near term. Look for sideways and choppy action in the near term, until bulls can store up enough energy to push prices above last week’s high. Bulls do still have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend that remains in place on the daily bar chart. Stay tuned!–Jim

Monday, January 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite is more robust to start the trading week, as the U.S. stock indexes hover close to last week’s record highs.

The U.S.-Iran conflicted has, at least for the time being, died down and the U.S. and China are this week set to sign a partial trade deal, which is likely to stimulate global economic growth in 2020.

The marketplace is keeping an eye on major protesting in Iran following the admission from the Iranian government that its military mistakenly shot down a passenger airliner last week.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices near steady and trading around $59.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is modestly up early today.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the employment trends index and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

–Jim

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Friday, January 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight and European shares were mostly up. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings and at more record highs when the New York day session begins. After hitting a nasty speed bump a few days ago, the stock market bulls are right back in business and trader/investor risk appetite is robust.

The U.S. and Iran have backed away from further military confrontation—at least for now. And the world’s two largest economies are set to sign a partial trade agreement next week, with Chinese trade officials traveling to Washington, D.C. to do the signing. Most reckon the deal will pave the way for better global economic growth in 2020.

Traders and investors are back to examining economic data and other market fundamentals, including awaiting Friday morning’s December U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department. Wednesday’s stronger-than-expected ADP national employment report has some leaning toward a stronger non-farm jobs number in Friday’s report, which has been forecast to come in at up 160,000.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices slightly lower and trading around $59.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is modestly up early today.

Other U.S. economic data due for release includes the monthly wholesale trade report.

–Jim

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February Nymex crude oil prices spiked to a nine-month high of $65.65 on Wednesday and then came crashing back down to score a big and bearish “outside day” down on the daily chart that suggests a near-term market top is in place. Now, the bulls need to defend the uptrend line on the daily chart Stay tuned!–Jim