Daily Morning Report

Friday, December 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock indexes were narrowly mixed in quieter trading overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings and near this week’s record highs when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are turning their attention to the upcoming holidays, including squaring their books, so trading interest and volumes are likely to wane the next couple weeks.

There are still no geopolitical hotspots in the global marketplace to spook traders and investors, which is allowing global equities markets to continue to drift higher. Higher asset flows into stocks have put some price pressure on world bond markets.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up, as the greenback bulls are having a good week. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $60.80 a barrel after hitting a three-month high this week.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the final estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product, personal income and outlays, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

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Thursday, December 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to weaker overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings and near this week’s record highs when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are turning their attention to the upcoming holidays, so trading interest and volumes are likely to wane the next couple weeks.

The global market place appears to have so far taken in stride the U.S. House of Representatives’ impeachment of President Trump, which had been fully expected for weeks.

In overnight news, Sweden’s central bank (Riksbank) raised its key interest rate to zero percent. This has many market watchers thinking other major central banks of the world which have negative interest rates are also on a path to raise their interest rates. The Bank of England concludes its monetary policy meeting later today, with no changes expected. Earlier Thursday the Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged, with its key interest rate at 0.1%.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $61.00 a barrel after hitting a three-month high Wednesday.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, leading economic indicators, existing home sales and international transactions (current account).

–Jim

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The Nymex crude oil market bulls are flexing their muscles at present as prices this week hit a three-month high and are in a solid uptrend on the daily chart. There is stiff overhead resistance at the September high, which will challenge the bulls’ present strength. Stay tuned!–Jim

Wednesday, December 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings and will be at or near record highs when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are turning their attention to the upcoming holidays, so trading interest and volumes are likely to wane the next couple weeks.

Risk appetite is receding a bit at mid-week, following last week’s U.S.-China partial trade agreement. That deal has yet to be signed and there are many skeptics that wonder how China will be able to purchase $40 billion worth of agricultural products, which is about double the previous record-high annual China ag purchases from the U.S.

In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index for November was reported down 0.3% from October and up 1.0%, year-on-year, which was in line with trade expectations but still shows worrisomely low inflation in Europe.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Greenback bulls are still on the defensive, however, after prices hit a 4.5-month low last week. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $60.50 a barrel after hitting a three-month high Tuesday.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

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Tuesday, December 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian stock indexes were mostly higher overnight, while European shares were mixed to weaker. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly lower openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. and U.K. stock indexes hit record highs Monday amid keener risk appetite in the global marketplace following news of a partial U.S.-China trade agreement.

European shares were rattled Tuesday on news U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson intends to introduce legislation to bar extension of Brexit talks beyond one year, which many believe is not enough time for a “soft” Brexit. The British pound also fell on the news.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $60.25 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, new residential construction, industrial production and capacity utilization, and the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index.

–Jim

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The corn futures market has pushed higher recently, to negate a price downtrend on the daily bar chart. The corn bulls have momentum to suggest at least sideways trading in the near term–if not sideways to higher. A push in prices above solid resistance at $4.00 would give the bulls the technical power to suggest a price uptrend could be sustained in the coming weeks and months. Stay tuned!–Jim