Daily Morning Report

Friday, December 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock indexes were mostly up in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and at their record highs when the New York day session begins.

There has been little markets-moving news in the global marketplace this holiday week. The past several weeks have seen the geopolitical front quiet, which has diminished trader and investor worries and uncertainties, and has allowed world stock markets to continue to drift higher, with some stock indexes, including those in the U.S., hitting record highs. This lull won’t go on indefinitely and veteran market watchers are pondering the next major event to disrupt the calm.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and hit a seven-week high overnight, trading around $61.90 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

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Thursday, December 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to slightly up in quiet, holiday trading overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings and at or near their record highs when the New York day session begins.

There is little markets-moving news in the global marketplace on the day after the Christmas holiday. The past several weeks have seen the geopolitical front quiet, which has squelched trader and investor worries and uncertainties and has allowed world stock markets to drift higher, with some stock indexes, including those in the U.S., hitting record highs. Veteran market watchers know the quiet trading atmosphere cannot go on indefinitely and are pondering the next event to upset the calm.

A feature in the markets this week is the rallying gold and silver markets, which today hit seven-week highs. The safe-haven metals are rallying despite little risk aversion in markets. Gold bulls are focusing on better demand for precious metals in 2020, amid outlooks for increased global economic growth in the new year.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up, hit a seven-week high overnight, and trading around $61.25 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and weekly jobless claims.

–Jim

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The Nymex crude oil market is trending up and last week hit a seven-month high, basis February futures. Crude oil bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage, but there are stiff chart resistance levels just above the market that could stop the uptrend. Importantly, crude oil is arguably the leader of the raw commodity sector. Oil’s recent strong rally has also helped to lift other commodity market sectors, including grains, softs and metals. The raw commodity sectors has a bit of a head of steam heading into the new year. Part of the optimism is due to ideas of better global economic growth in 2020, as the world’s two largest economies (U.S. and China) appear to be on the mend from their two-year-old trade war. Stay tuned!–Jim

Tuesday, December 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock indexes were mostly slightly up in more quiet trading overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings and at or near their record highs when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are gearing up for the upcoming holidays, including squaring their books as the end of the year approaches, so trading interest and volumes are likely to be lighter the next week or so. Markets are closed Wednesday for the Christmas holiday and many, including the U.S. stock markets, close early today.

The geopolitical front has been quieter for many weeks, including U.S.-China trade tensions relaxing the past couple weeks, and that’s making for a “risk-on” trading environment that is boosting global equities. Notions of better global economic growth in the coming new year are also lifting raw commodity markets, with crude oil leading the way.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $60.65 a barrel after hitting a multi-month high last week.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, and the Richmond Fed business survey.

–Jim

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Monday, December 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock indexes are near steady to slightly up in quieter trading overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings and at or near their record highs when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are gearing up for the upcoming holidays, including squaring their books as the end of the year approaches, so trading interest and volumes are likely to be lighter the next week or so. Markets are closed Wednesday for the Christmas holiday.

Trader and investor risk appetite remains upbeat heading into the end of the year, as the U.S.-China trade war appears to be winding down. China over the weekend announced plans on January 1 to cut import tariffs on hundreds of products from all of its trading partners. Rhetoric from government officials on both sides has been positive the past couple weeks.

A holiday-shortened week feature Monday is the rise in gold prices to a six-week high Monday. Gold bulls are especially pleased to see their metal performing well amid the low risk aversion in the global marketplace at present, as many world stock indexes are near record highs. Buying interest in the yellow metal is likely being spurred on notions of better consumer demand for metals, especially from China, as the U.S.-China trade war may be ending.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $60.50 a barrel after hitting a multi-month high last week.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes durable goods orders and new residential sales.

–Jim

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The safe-haven gold market has been trading sideways recently, amid the keener risk appetite in the world marketplace that is keeping more assets flowing into equities and less into safe-haven assets like gold and silver. Still, it can be argued that the gold market bulls have fared pretty well by trading sideways amid an environment that has very little risk aversion. Also, the much quieter trading action this week has produced a “collapse in volatility” on the daily chart, which does suggest a bigger price move is coming very soon. Stay tuned!–Jim