Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, December 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock indexes were mostly slightly up in more quiet trading overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings and at or near their record highs when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are gearing up for the upcoming holidays, including squaring their books as the end of the year approaches, so trading interest and volumes are likely to be lighter the next week or so. Markets are closed Wednesday for the Christmas holiday and many, including the U.S. stock markets, close early today.

The geopolitical front has been quieter for many weeks, including U.S.-China trade tensions relaxing the past couple weeks, and that’s making for a “risk-on” trading environment that is boosting global equities. Notions of better global economic growth in the coming new year are also lifting raw commodity markets, with crude oil leading the way.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $60.65 a barrel after hitting a multi-month high last week.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, and the Richmond Fed business survey.

–Jim

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Monday, December 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock indexes are near steady to slightly up in quieter trading overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings and at or near their record highs when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are gearing up for the upcoming holidays, including squaring their books as the end of the year approaches, so trading interest and volumes are likely to be lighter the next week or so. Markets are closed Wednesday for the Christmas holiday.

Trader and investor risk appetite remains upbeat heading into the end of the year, as the U.S.-China trade war appears to be winding down. China over the weekend announced plans on January 1 to cut import tariffs on hundreds of products from all of its trading partners. Rhetoric from government officials on both sides has been positive the past couple weeks.

A holiday-shortened week feature Monday is the rise in gold prices to a six-week high Monday. Gold bulls are especially pleased to see their metal performing well amid the low risk aversion in the global marketplace at present, as many world stock indexes are near record highs. Buying interest in the yellow metal is likely being spurred on notions of better consumer demand for metals, especially from China, as the U.S.-China trade war may be ending.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $60.50 a barrel after hitting a multi-month high last week.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes durable goods orders and new residential sales.

–Jim

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The safe-haven gold market has been trading sideways recently, amid the keener risk appetite in the world marketplace that is keeping more assets flowing into equities and less into safe-haven assets like gold and silver. Still, it can be argued that the gold market bulls have fared pretty well by trading sideways amid an environment that has very little risk aversion. Also, the much quieter trading action this week has produced a “collapse in volatility” on the daily chart, which does suggest a bigger price move is coming very soon. Stay tuned!–Jim

Friday, December 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock indexes were narrowly mixed in quieter trading overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings and near this week’s record highs when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are turning their attention to the upcoming holidays, including squaring their books, so trading interest and volumes are likely to wane the next couple weeks.

There are still no geopolitical hotspots in the global marketplace to spook traders and investors, which is allowing global equities markets to continue to drift higher. Higher asset flows into stocks have put some price pressure on world bond markets.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up, as the greenback bulls are having a good week. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $60.80 a barrel after hitting a three-month high this week.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the final estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product, personal income and outlays, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

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Thursday, December 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to weaker overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings and near this week’s record highs when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are turning their attention to the upcoming holidays, so trading interest and volumes are likely to wane the next couple weeks.

The global market place appears to have so far taken in stride the U.S. House of Representatives’ impeachment of President Trump, which had been fully expected for weeks.

In overnight news, Sweden’s central bank (Riksbank) raised its key interest rate to zero percent. This has many market watchers thinking other major central banks of the world which have negative interest rates are also on a path to raise their interest rates. The Bank of England concludes its monetary policy meeting later today, with no changes expected. Earlier Thursday the Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged, with its key interest rate at 0.1%.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $61.00 a barrel after hitting a three-month high Wednesday.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, leading economic indicators, existing home sales and international transactions (current account).

–Jim

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The Nymex crude oil market bulls are flexing their muscles at present as prices this week hit a three-month high and are in a solid uptrend on the daily chart. There is stiff overhead resistance at the September high, which will challenge the bulls’ present strength. Stay tuned!–Jim