Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, March 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Asian and European stocks were mostly higher overnight. Risk appetite in the world marketplace remains upbeat, as there are no major geopolitical matters moving the world markets. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

Trader and investor focus is on the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve, which began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. The FOMC is not expected to change its monetary policy at this meeting. The Fed has become more dovish the past few months. As usual, the marketplace will glean the FOMC statement and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s wording for clues on the future path and timing of monetary policy changes.

News reports are saying the U.S. and China are moving closer to a formal trade agreement after the two largest economies in the world fought a trade war for months. Reports said U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer are traveling to China next week for high-level discussions to try to get a deal wrapped up. Some are now speculating that a deal will be reached, but it won’t include important demands the U.S. had made, such as theft of intellectual property.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly firmer on an upside correction after hitting a three-week low Tuesday. The greenback bulls have faded recently. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are modestly lower and trading just below $59.50 a barrel. Oil prices hit a four-month high Tuesday.

U.S. economic reports due for release Wednesday include the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, and the FOMC statement and Powell press conference.

–Jim

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Palladium prices soared to a record high above $1,150 a ton this week, due in part to Russia, the world’s largest producer, banning the export of scrap and tailings of precious metals from May until November. There are no early chart clues that the market is close to topping out. Stay tuned!

Tuesday, March 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Asian and European stocks were mostly higher overnight. Risk appetite in the world marketplace remains elevated, as there are no major geopolitical matters jolting the world markets. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

Trader and investor focus is on the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve, which begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. The FOMC is not expected to change its monetary policy at this meeting. The Fed has become more dovish the past few months. As usual, the marketplace will glean the FOMC statement and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s wording for clues on the future path and timing of monetary policy changes.

The unresolved Brexit matter continues simmer on the back burner of the world marketplace. The latest development saw a Member of Parliament block for voting a plan presented by Prime Minister Theresa May. It’s becoming more likely that the U.K.’s exit from the European Union will be a long, drawn-out affair.

In other overnight news, the closely watched German Zew economic expectations index rose to -3.4 in March from -13.4 in February. The March number beat trade expectations for a reading of -10.0.

Palladium prices soared to a record high above $1,150 a ton overnight, due in part to Russia, the world’s largest producer, banning the export of scrap and tailings of precious metals from May until November.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. The greenback bulls have faded recently. Nymex crude oil prices are modestly higher and trading around $59.50 a barrel. Oil prices hit a four-month high overnight.

U.S. economic reports due for release Tuesday include the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, and manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.

–Jim

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Monday, March 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Asian and European stocks were mostly higher overnight. There were no major geopolitical developments during the weekend to move the markets, and trading is quieter to start the week. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

Trader and investor focus is turning to this week’s FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve, which begins Tuesday and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. The FOMC is not expected to change its monetary policy at this meeting. The Fed has become more dovish the past few months.

The Brexit matter continues to play out but it’s on the back burner of the world marketplace. The U.K. has no “soft Brexit” deal in place ahead of the March 29 “hard exit” (no deal) for the U.K. to leave the European Union. Look for Prime Minister Theresa May to soon propose another plan for a soft Brexit to the Parliament.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are modestly lower and trading just above $58.00 a barrel. Oil prices hit a four-month high last Friday.

U.S. economic reports due for release Monday are light and include the NAHB housing market index.

–Jim

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The Nymex crude oil futures market this week hit a four-month high and in doing so restarted a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. This suggests more sideways-to-higher price action in the near term, including a challenge of major technical resistance at $60.00 per barrel. Stay tuned!

Friday, March 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Asian and European stocks were mostly higher overnight, while U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.

The raw commodity sector has been given a boost by news that on April 1 China plans to further cut taxes on its businesses and citizens in an effort to stimulate the world’s second-largest economy and the world’s largest raw commodity importer. This news comes after China’s central bank recently eased its monetary policy following a few months of downbeat economic data, due in part to the U.S.-China trade war.

In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index in February rose 0.3% from January and was up 1.5%, year-on-year. Those numbers were in line with market expectations and continue a theme of low and non-problematic inflation in the major world economies.

The Brexit saga continues to play out with no “soft Brexit” deal in place, ahead of the March 29 “hard exit” (no deal) for the U.K. to leave the European Union. While this matter has the attention of the world marketplace, it is not impacting most markets in any significant way, save for the British Pound and U.K. equities.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices slightly up and trading around $58.70 a barrel. Oil prices did hit a four-month high overnight.

U.S. economic reports due for release Friday include the Empire State manufacturing survey, industrial production and capacity utilization, Treasury international capital data and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

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